Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Solar Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/solener A model for measuring the success of distributed small-scale photovoltaic systems projects Paula D. Rigo a, ⁎ , Julio Cezar M. Siluk a , Daniel P. Lacerda b , Graciele Rediske a , Carmen B. Rosa a a Federal University of Santa Maria -UFSM, Department of Production and Systems Engineering, Av. Roraima, 1000, Bairro Camobi, Santa Maria, RS 97.105-900, Brazil b Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos - UNISINOS, Research Group on Modeling for Learning - GMAP | UNISINOS, Av. Unisinos, 950, Bairro Cristo Rei, São Leopoldo, RS 93.022-000, Brazil ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Solar photovoltaic energy Distributed generation Small-scale generation Support decision ABSTRACT Small-scale Distributed Generation through photovoltaic technology is promising, driven by government policies and lower component prices. However, the large amount to be invested, the characteristics of photovoltaic energy, and the uncertainties regarding this technology make it difficult to secure the investment decision and to visualize the success potentiality. Our objective is to propose a success measurement model for the small-scale distributed generation projects' implementation of photovoltaic energy. The methodological approach to mod- eling encompasses the concepts of Key Performance Indicators and Multicriteria Decision Analysis based on Analytic Hierarchy Process. We researched with 19 experts (researchers) and 32 investors in photovoltaic en- ergy. The model made it possible to weigh the indicators and measure the projects' success under evaluation. Of the projects diagnosed, 15 achieved a Global Success Index of over 76%, considered “Full Success” and 17 were judged as “Potential Success”. We identified that improvement in some Key Performance Indicators could ad- vance to “Full Success” level projects framed as “Potential Success”. Thus, the model contributes to reflection and learning, given our indicators analysis. The main contribution we highlight is the measurement approach developed for the model serving to generate new measurement models. Such models may incorporate other themes, contextual factors, and considerations different from those performed in this case. Applying this model to future projects can provide consistent decisions or make robust new small-scale photovoltaic projects. 1. Introduction The electricity industry is undergoing a hesitant transition towards Distributed Generation (DG) in worldwide (Roberts et al., 2019). DG consists of generating local electricity with connection to distribution networks close to the consumer (Rigo et al., 2019b), promoting self- consumption and energy exchange with the grid (Jäger-Waldau et al., 2019). DG aims to meet the growing demand for electricity by in- creasing the use of renewable sources, being motivated by policies developed in several countries, such as tax exemptions, subsidies, Feed- in Tariffs, and Net Metering (Pinto et al., 2016; Tantiwechwuttikul et al., 2019). In addition to the technological development of electricity generation from renewable sources in recent years (Behravesh et al., 2018; Campos et al., 2016), policies have allowed the emergence of business models, design and installation companies, increasing the production of inputs for this market. Among renewable generation technologies, Photovoltaic (PV) energy was highlighted in the small- scale DG scenario (Babacan et al., 2017). The number of countries in- vesting in PV for electricity supply has increased considerably, and in 2019, 18 countries installed more than 1 GW, contributing to the total solar photovoltaic power capacity exceeded 635 GW at the end of the same year (Jäger-Waldau, 2020). Factors contributing to this behavior include linear generation scalability, ease of installation and mon- itoring, low maintenance, and high availability of the solar resource. However, a decentralized generation has other potentials as it consists of a high growth generation model and requires a greater under- standing of techniques, procurement criteria, implementation, and evaluation of results from the consumer's point of view. When the modality of electricity generation is small-scale dis- tributed, the acquisition of photovoltaic systems is made by individuals with different technical knowledge levels, from one with higher tech- nical knowledge to one lower level of knowledge (e.g., homeowners, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2020.04.078 Received 16 January 2020; Received in revised form 14 April 2020; Accepted 24 April 2020 Abbreviations: AHP, Analytic Hierarchy Process; CSF, Critical Success Factor; DG, Distributed Generation; FPV, Fundamental Point of View; KPI, Key Performance Indicator; MCDA, Multicriteria Decision Analysis; PV, Photovoltaic ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: paularigo@mail.ufsm.br (P.D. Rigo). Solar Energy 205 (2020) 241–253 0038-092X/ © 2020 International Solar Energy Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. T