Int. J. Adv. Sci. Eng. Vol.9 No.1 2591-2598 (2022) 2591 E-ISSN: 2349 5359; P-ISSN: 2454-9967
Divya & Umamaheswari
International Journal of Advanced Science and Engineering www.mahendrapublications.com
Solar Power Forecasting Methods – A Review
R. Divya, S. Umamaheswari*
Department of Electrical and Electronics, Mahendra Engineering College,
Mahendhirapuri, Mallasamudram - 637 503,
Namakkal District, Tamil Nadu, India.
INTRODUCTION
Due to rapid exhaustion of the fossil fuels and
the concept of the Global warming the non
renewable energy sources have been losing
importance. To estimate the performance of PV
installations in the approaching years the effect
of global warming have been analyzed by Peters
et al.,[1]. In case of the Industrial and home
loads solar energy is of primary importance [2]
but only demerit is that they are unpredictable
in nature. Different amounts of electricity are
generated by solar plants in case of various
climatic condition and solar radiation [3]. There
has been more change noticed in case of the
output power. This change can happen at any
time and it is not constrained [4]. This often
leads to load-generation incongruity in the grid,
thus on the whole making the solar power
forecasting quite vital, more important while
taking into consideration of the high
penetration solar grid [5].
The Grid integration with the renewable
energy sources is quite complex. The Grid
management complexity occurs due to the fitful
perspective of the solar energy and moreover
balancing the electrical energy generation and
consumptions becomes challenging [6]. Most
common issues that arise during the
generations and consumption are voltage
fluctuations, low power quality, instability.
Asynchronous operations, variability and
uncertainty are the main technical challenges
that the operators are supposed to deal with
while integrating renewable energy with the
grid [7]. For the purpose of optimal
management of the electrical grid accurate
forecasting of solar power is essential [8]. In
case of dealing with the generated power,
scheduling, minimizing the cost of production of
electrical energy, overcrowding management
and for the purpose of better operation of the
power grid. Solar power forecasting is required.
While the penetration of the grid increases the
solar power prediction is critical. For the
purpose of controlling electricity variation
usage of storage systems with renewable
energy is suggested by many researches.
For the purpose of maintaining a continuous
flow of electricity, to dampen the fluctuations
and to absorb excess power mostly the storage
systems are being preferred. Forecasting
ABSTRACT: Solar power forecasting is crucial for the purpose of ensuring grid stability and proper
grid management. Recent advancements with inside the discipline of solar power forecasting are
presented, and the main focus is on the different types of Machine Learning (ML) Techniques used.
These ML techniques can solve both the complex and nonlinear data structures. The two types of
solar power forecasting are direct and indirect. It entails three models namely: plane of array
irradiance, estimating solar irradiance forecast, solar performance. For the purpose of classification
of solar power forecasting we take into consideration 3 main parameters such as the Forecast
Horizon, Input Parameters and the Forecasting methodology. During the failure of the real-time data
acquisition or with inside the case of unavailability of solar power for a new PV plant the concept of
Indirect solar power forecasting can be used. According to recent studies models like the hybrid
models, deep neural networks take over the conventional methods of the short-term solar
forecasting. Data-preparation techniques and various intelligent optimizations enhance the
performance accuracy.
KEYWORDS: Optimization, Direct Forecasting, Indirect Forecasting, SVM, ELM, ANN, MLR, Forecast
Horizon, Global Horizontal Irradiance.
https://doi.org/10.29294/IJASE.9.1.2022.2591-2598 ©2022 Mahendrapublications.com, All rights reserved
*Corresponding Author: umas.sundar@gmail.com
Received: 11.06.2022 Accepted: 27.07.2022 Published on: 01.08.2022