Diagnosis of the hydrology of a small Arctic permafrost
catchment using HBV conceptual rainfall-runoff model
Marzena Osuch, Tomasz Wawrzyniak and Adam Nawrot
ABSTRACT
Changes in active layer thickness (ALT) over Arctic and permafrost regions have an important impact
on rainfall-runoff transformation. General warming is observed across Svalbard Archipelago and
corresponds to increases in ground temperatures. Permafrost thaw and changes in ALT due to
climate warming alter how water is routed and stored in catchments, and thus impact both surface
and subsurface processes. The overall aim of the present study is to examine the relationships
between temporal changes of active layer depth and hydrological model parameters, together with
variation in the catchment response. The analysis was carried out for the small unglaciated
catchment Fuglebekken, located in the vicinity of the Polish Polar Station Hornsund on Spitsbergen.
For hydrological modelling, the conceptual rainfall-runoff HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns
Vattenbalansavdelning) model was used. The model was calibrated and validated on runoff within
subperiods. A moving window approach (3 weeks long) was applied to derive temporal variation of
parameters. Model calibration, together with an estimation of parametric uncertainty, was carried
out using the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm. This allowed the dependence of HBV
model parameters on ALT to be analysed. Also, we tested the influence of model simplification,
correction of precipitation, and initial conditions on the modelling results.
Marzena Osuch (corresponding author)
Department of Hydrology and Hydrodynamics,
Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of
Sciences,
Ksie ˛ cia Janusza 64, Warsaw, 01-452,
Poland
E-mail: marz@igf.edu.pl
Tomasz Wawrzyniak
Adam Nawrot
Department of Polar and Marine Research,
Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of
Sciences,
Ksie ˛ cia Janusza 64, Warsaw, 01-452,
Poland
Key words | active layer thickness, HBV, parametric non-stationarity, runoff modelling, Svalbard
INTRODUCTION
Hydrological modelling in areas with the occurrence of per-
ennially frozen ground together with seasonally changing
active layer thickness (ALT) requires a better understanding
of the influence of soil processes on water balance. Ground-
water movement in permafrost terrain is limited because the
frozen soil is practically impermeable and so infiltration and
groundwater recharge are possible only within the active
layer that thaws in summer or in taliks (Woo ). The
impact of climate change on the ground thermal regime
may affect active groundwater and hydrogeological pro-
cesses directly and indirectly (Streletskiy et al. ;
Walvoord & Kurylyk ). Dramatic environmental
changes including higher air temperature, changes of pre-
cipitation patterns, permafrost degradation, and longer
melting seasons have all been occurring recently in cold
environment catchments (Callaghan et al. ; Bindoff
et al. ; Bring & Destouni ; Walvoord & Kurylyk
; Osuch & Wawrzyniak , ). The hydrological
cycle in the Arctic is currently undergoing alterations due
to different impacts (Vihma et al. ) and affects the
global climate system (Bindoff et al. ). Despite widely
documented evidence, remote catchments are still charac-
terised by the poor availability of hydro-climatological data
from in situ measurements, so a modelling approach is
especially required for checking consistency in datasets, vali-
dation of assumptions, description, and parametrisation of
processes which, by all means, improve our understanding
of natural processes.
459 © IWA Publishing 2019 Hydrology Research | 50.2 | 2019
doi: 10.2166/nh.2019.031
Downloaded from http://iwaponline.com/hr/article-pdf/50/2/459/548920/nh0500459.pdf
by guest
on 09 September 2022