Monetary Policy
Contagion in the West
African Monetary Zone
Moses K. Tule
1
Taiwo Ajilore
2
Augustine Ujunwa
2
Abstract
The study utilized quarterly time series data for Nigeria and three selected West
African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries for the period 1980–2016 to ver-
ify whether monetary policy shocks emanating from Nigeria are an important
source of macroeconomic fluctuations in WAMZ economies. The study com-
plemented the Global vector autoregressive method with the Diebold–Yilmaz
(2009) connectedness weights computation for the analysis. Inferences from
generalized impulse response function (GIRF) analysis indicated that an unantici-
pated Nigerian monetary policy shock depreciates the Nigeria–USA exchange
rate, stimulates growth, decelerates inflation and expands the money stock in
the short run for Nigeria. In Ghana, Nigeria’s monetary policy shocks similarly
depreciates the exchange rate, slows growth with high inflationary impact in
the short run. In the Gambia, unanticipated shocks emanating from Nigeria
strengthens the Gambia–USA exchange rate, depresses growth and inflation-
ary pressures. Sierra Leone shares the appreciation of its currency with the
Gambia, in addition to an economic expansion and rising inflation. Money supply
also increases to accommodate the expanding demand. These results validated
the thesis that there exist considerable geographical linkages within the WAMZ
regions through which macroeconomic fluctuations are transmitted. For policy,
monetary authorities in the region should collectively address the question of
how to stabilize the economy in response to monetary policy shocks emanating
from Nigeria.
Article
1
Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria.
2
International Economic Relations Division, Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria,
Garki Abuja, Nigeria.
Corresponding author:
Taiwo Ajilore, International Economic Relations Division, Monetary Policy Department, Central
Bank of Nigeria, Plot 33, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Way, Central Business District, Cadastral Zone,
Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria P.M.B. 0187, Garki Abuja 900211, Nigeria.
E-mail: otajilore@cbn.gov.ng
Foreign Trade Review
54(4) 375–398, 2019
© 2019 Indian Institute of
Foreign Trade
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DOI: 10.1177/0015732519874219
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