Markov Chain Model in Measuring Brand Switching of Cooking Oil Muhammad Dharma Tuah Putra Nasution 1* , Nashrudin Setiawan 1 , Yossie Rossanty 1 , Irawan 1 ,Solly Aryza Lubis 2 {dharma_nasution@dosen.pancabudi.ac.id * } 1 Faculty of Social Science, Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi, Medan, Indonesia 2 Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi, Medan, Indonesia Abstract: This research aims to explore the brand switching of cooking oil to other brands made by the purchasers, especially homemakers. Another goal is to analyze the various considerations of homemakers when choosing and deciding to switch to another brand. The authors also explain how the market share of cooking oil brands in the present and future and use descriptive analysis by presenting the results of information from homemakers as consumers of various brands of cooking oil. The data collected in this research are primary and secondary data. The result of this study is that consumers who switched to Tropical and Sania were more than consumers who moved from both brands. Meanwhile, Sunco consumers are the most consumers switching to other brands. The most popular brand of cooking oil is Bimoli. The next sequence is Tropical and Sania. Most consumers choose Bimoli cooking oil because this oil is classified as a famous product, easily obtained, and the habits of the family. Unlike Tropical, most consumers choose because of the economical price. For Sania, consumers who choose this brand is due to nutritional value information and is classified as a famous brand. The results also show that market share is still dominated by Bimoli, followed by Tropical and Sania. Bimoli's market share growth is predicted to grow by 2.4 percent. A significant market share increase occurred in Sania, while there was a decrease in market share for Tropical. Keywords: Markov Chain, Brand Equity, Brand Switching, Market Share, External Factor, Internal Factor. 1. Introduction Products and brands have to fight competition. A reason is a rapid advancement of technology and the more creative marketing concepts and promotional strategies launched by all companies. The market will become more competitive and more crowded. Brands competition is circulating in the market even more fierce. In addition to current promotion, the market has now entered the digital era. All forms of promotion have entered and played in the digital realm.It is forming its market with many opportunities ready to be utilized for whom are ready. In the end, there are only one or two consumer product brands selected in one product category. For instance, many consumers like and select one of the brands in the market. Many factors can cause consumers unsatisfied with a brand of product. These factors may come from the product itself, and it can come from the outside. Many products features do not match what is being promoted. It is found in the term, "Over promise under deliver." A brand provided the high expectation to customers when products promoted should be careful with risks that may be faced later if the product is unable to fulfill the customer's expectation. Conversely, if the promotion provided is reasonable and attractive, consumers will be more satisfied if the product can fulfill the consumers' expectations. Consumers will be more tolerant of a brand because previously the brand does not over-promise. Consumers want the ICASI 2019, July 18-19, Banda Aceh, Indonesia Copyright © 2019 EAI DOI 10.4108/eai.18-7-2019.2288574