RESEARCH ARTICLE Climate Change Will Intensify Drought Risk at the Newly Established Mkulazi II Sugar Estate, Mvomero District, Tanzania Sixbert Kajumula Mourice 1 Received: 17 October 2018 / Accepted: 25 June 2019 Ó Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2019 Abstract Despite considerable strides made in sugar industry since privatization in 1996, Tanzania still face an annual sugar deficit well above 300,000 tons, leading to an annual sugar import bill of USD$132 million. In addressing this challenge, Tanzania has embarked on ambitious pro- gram to expand the sugar industry by establishment of new sugar estates. In view of climate change challenges, the program should be aligned to the future conditions which will have bearing on the profitability of investments. A study was conducted to assess the effect of climate change on agricultural droughts in terms of water deficit index (WDI), throughout the near-term (2010–2039) at the newly established Mkulazi II Sugar Estate at Dakawa, Mvomero District Tanzania, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Baseline climate indicates serious drought risk for sugarcane crop for months of July through November when WDI C 0.75, and low risk during rainy season (March–May). Near-term period will become drier than the baseline climate for months of May–December while drought will subside during January–April with respect to the baseline climate. The projected changes in water deficit at the study site point to two facts: One is that rainfed production will not be possible, considering the projected decline in short rains (October–December), and the other is that water demand, in terms of crop water requirement, will increase due to increased drought conditions. In order to sustain sugarcane yields in the future, there will be a need to design an irrigation system that accounts for the climate change challenges. Keywords AgMIP  Climate change  Drought  Sugarcane  Tanzania Introduction Tanzania sugar industry has gone through various phases of control, from being under public between 1967 and 1996 to being under private investors since 1997. Sugar production rose from pre-privatization level of 112,209 tons in 1998 to 333,700 tons in 2014 (FAO 2018). Despite these significant strides, Tanzania still has annual sugar deficit well above 300,000 tons, mainly due to small number of sugar mills and low acreage of land under sugarcane. As a result, there is a great deal of sugar importation at the expense of USD 132 million (FAO 2018). Currently, there are four com- panies which commercially produce brown sugar, namely Kilombero Sugar Company (KSCL) and Mtibwa Sugar Estates (both in Morogoro Region), Tanganyika Planting Company (TPC) (in Kilimanjaro Region) and Kagera Sugar (in Kagera Region). Importation of sugar has nega- tive impacts on domestic sugar industry, by a way of market price distortions and suppressing local employment. In addressing sugar production insufficiency concerns in Tanzania, the government, in partnership with local and foreign organizations, has put up plans to establish new sugar plantations and mills across the country. Increased local and international demand for sugar (Ngcobo and Jewitt 2017) also motivates the current drive to establish new cane fields and milling plants. Establishment of a sugar plantation and mill at Wami Prison Farm (in Mvo- mero District and under Mkulazi Holding Company Lim- ited) is the response to the need for addressing sugar & Sixbert Kajumula Mourice sixbert.mourice@sua.ac.tz 1 Department of Crop Science and Horticulture, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania 123 Sugar Tech https://doi.org/10.1007/s12355-019-00748-3