Letters
COMMENT & RESPONSE
Assessing Metronomic Chemotherapy
for Progressive Pediatric Solid Malignant Tumors
To the Editor In the trial conducted by Pramanik and colleagues
1
for treating progressive pediatric solid malignant tumors, the
primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS). The
jhazard ratio (HR) for metronomic chemotherapy vs best
supportive care (BSC) was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.47-1.03; P = .07). Nu-
merically, this HR value is impressive, but it is not statisti-
cally significant. Therefore, the authors concluded that met-
ronomic chemotherapy would not improve PFS, compared
with placebo, among pediatric patients with extracranial pro-
gressive solid malignant tumors. The profile of the difference
of the 2 Kaplan-Meier PFS curves in Figure 2 of the article for
metronomic chemotherapy and BSC suggests that the propor-
tional hazards model assumption is not plausible. That is, the
HR is not constant over the entire study follow-up time. This
implies that the observed HR is difficult to interpret clinically
and, furthermore, it is likely that the test based on HR might
not have enough statistical power to detect a real metro-
nomic treatment effect. The authors also reported that the me-
dian PFS times between the 2 arms were similar. On the other
hand, visually the Kaplan-Meier curves suggested that met-
ronomic chemotherapy appeared to prolong the patients’ PFS
after 2 months of follow-up. For this situation, the median is
not sensitive enough to capture the relatively long-term sur-
vival profile from metronomic chemotherapy. It is also known
that generally the estimate of the median survival time is no-
toriously unstable and results in an inconclusive claim about
the treatment difference.
An alternative approach to handle this case is to use the
mean PFS time to quantify the treatment benefit, which can
be estimated by the area under the Kaplan-Meier curve.
2-4
With
reconstructed PFS data by scanning the Kaplan-Meier curves
of Figure 2,
5
the estimated mean PFS times for metronomic
chemotherapy and BSC are 2.4 and 1.6 months, respectively.
The difference in the mean PFS time is 0.8 months (95% CI,
0.14-1.5 months; P = .02). This quantification results in a sta-
tistically significant difference in favor of metronomic che-
motherapy. Moreover, the difference of 0.8 months, coupled
with the mean PFS time of 1.6 months for the control BSC arm,
provides a more clinically meaningful interpretation of the
treatment effect of metronomic chemotherapy than an HR of
0.65. The design and analysis of a future cancer clinical trial
with overall survival/PFS outcome may be improved by adopt-
ing a robust, efficient statistical procedure that enables clini-
cally meaningful interpretation of the treatment effect.
Xuemin Fang, PhD
Hajime Uno, PhD
Lee-Jen Wei, PhD
Author Affiliations: Department of Clinical Medicine (Biostatistics), Kitasato
University, Tokyo, Japan (Fang); Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber
Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (Uno); Department of Biostatistics,
Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts (Wei).
Corresponding Author: Lee-Jen Wei, PhD, Department of Biostatistics,
Harvard University, 655 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115
(wei@hsph.harvard.edu).
Published Online: January 25, 2018. doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2017.3983
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.
1. Pramanik R, Agarwala S, Gupta YK, et al. Metronomic chemotherapy vs best
supportive care in progressive pediatric solid malignant tumors: a randomized
clinical trial. JAMA Oncol. 2017;3(9):1222-1227 .
2. Uno H, Claggett B, Tian L, et al. Moving beyond the hazard ratio in
quantifying the between-group difference in survival analysis. J Clin Oncol.
2014;32(22):2380-2385.
3. Uno H, Wittes J, Fu H, et al. Alternatives to hazard ratios for comparing the
efficacy or safety of therapies in noninferiority studies. Ann Intern Med. 2015;
163(2):127-134.
4. Péron J, Roy P, Ozenne B, Roche L, Buyse M. The net chance of a longer
survival as a patient-oriented measure of treatment benefit in randomized
clinical trials. JAMA Oncol. 2016;2(7):901-905.
5. Guyot P, Ades AE, Ouwens MJ, Welton NJ. Enhanced secondary analysis of
survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival
curves. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2012;12:9.
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