Global Journal of Science Frontier Research: D
Agriculture and Veterinary
Volume 14 Issue 4 Version 1.0 Year 2014
Type : Double Blind Peer Reviewed International Research Journal
Publisher: Global Journals Inc. (USA)
Online ISSN: 2249-4626 & Print ISSN: 0975-5896
Determinants of Agricultural Export Trade: A Co-Integration
Analysis for Cotton Lint Exports from Chad
University of Bonn, Germany
Abstract- Following the dramatic decline in Chad’s performance for production and export of
cotton lint (from leading producer and among leading exporters in the 1960s to being at the
bottom in rank among the C-4 countries of WCA since 1998), use is made of the Johansen Full
Information Maximum Likelihood test to identify and estimate the magnitude and effects of key
determinants of exports from the country. In this regard, I defined and estimated two primary co-
integrating and error correction equations using volume and value of exports as dependent
variables in the respective equations. Diagnostic tests performed revealed that the estimates
observed are stable, and residuals for the respective models are normally distributed, non-
serially correlated and homoscedastic. Results of the study show that cotton production,
competitiveness of the country in exports of the commodity, volume of world exports of the
commodity, and export price faced by the country are key determinants of export growth.
Policies implemented in both the internal and external environments are noted to have had more
harmful than beneficial implications for the cotton industry.
Keywords: co-integration; cotton lint; determinant; export growth; international trade; chad.
GJSFR-D Classification : FOR Code: 820301, 340201
DeterminantsofAgriculturalExportTradeACoIntegrationAnalysisforCottonLintExportsfromChad
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By David Bonansi
© 2014. David Bonansi. This is a research/review paper, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-
Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), permitting all non commercial use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.