Journal of Development Economics 21 (1986) 327-346. North-Holland
NEIGHBORHOOD EFFECTS OF DEVELOPING COIYNTRY
PROTECTION
Alan V. DEARDORFF and Robert M. STERN*
The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
Received April 1985, final version received September 1985
We examine how protection in LDCs affects welfare in other countries whose economic
circumstances are similar. Theoretical analysis suggests the effects may be positive or negative.
Analysis of data on protection in nine selected LDCs showed positive correlations among
patterns of protection and trade, but a tendency for greater protection against the exports of
other LDCs than against developed countries. To evaluate the general equilibrium economic
effects involved, we used the Michigan Computational Model of World Production and Trade.
The results showed positive terms-of-trade effects on other countries within the LDC sample
group and negative effects for may DCs. However, the terms-of-trade improvement was very
small and cannot be expected to outweigh the efficiency losses of protection within the LDCs
themselves.
1. Introduction
Analyses of tariffs and other forms of protection have focused mainly on
their effects on the protecting country. In two-country models there has been
some attention to effects on the other country, but this is equivalent to
looking at effects on the rest of the world as a whole. Except in the customs
union literature where the issues in any case are different, there has been
little attention to the effects that a country's protection may have on
individual foreign countries that make up only a part of the rest of the
world. In this paper we address this issue, looking specifically at the effects
that levels of protection in developing countries may have on other countries
in their economic 'neighborhood' - that is, countries whose economic
circumstances are similar to their own.
The issue is potentially of great importance, The successes of some
developing countries in recent years, together with the overall growth of
populations even in the less successful ones, have expanded their importance
*The research underlying this paper was supported by grants from the Bureau of Inter-
national Labor Affairs of the U.S. Department of Labor and the Ford Foundation. We are
grateful to Deborah Laren and Malcolm Robinson for computational assistance.
0304-3878/86/$3.50 © 1986, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. (North-Holland)