1
A Decision Support System for Mission-Based Ship Routing Considering Multiple
Performance Criteria
You Dong
1
, Dan M. Frangopol
2
*, and Samantha Sabatino
3
ABSTRACT
It is crucial to evaluate the structural risk associated with marine vessels subjected to inclement weather
and sea conditions when developing a decision support system for ship routing. The generalized decision
making framework developed in this paper performs a variety of tasks, including, but not limited to quantifying
the flexural and fatigue performance of ship structures and employing multi-attribute utility theory to evaluate
ship mission performance. A structural reliability approach is utilized to compute the probability of failure
considering the uncertainty in structural capacity and load effects; specifically, effects of flexural and fatigue
damage are investigated. The expected repair cost, cumulative fatigue damage, total travel time, and carbon
dioxide emissions associated with ship routing are considered as consequences within the risk assessment
procedure adopted in this paper. Additionally, the decision maker’s risk attitude is integrated into the presented
approach by employing utility theory. The presented methodology can assist decision makers in making
informed decisions concerning ship routing. In order to illustrate its capabilities the approach is applied to the
Joint High-speed Sealift Ship (JHSS).
Key words: Ship reliability; Risk assessment; Spectral fatigue analysis; Operational conditions; Multi-
attribute utility theory; Decision making.
1. Introduction
When a ship is deployed on a given mission, the route the vessel traverses is typically a predetermined path
with known potential sea conditions (e.g., sea states). Thus, a decision maker must determine, before the
mission, which route a ship may take. It is crucial to evaluate the structural risk associated with marine vessels
subjected to inclement weather and sea conditions when developing a decision management system for ship
routing. Ship mission routing can be established considering the strength of the hull, accounting for both
flexural and fatigue damage. Additionally, a multi-attribute decision making process may be incorporated to
form a robust framework for ship routing that accounts for a wide range of consequences (e.g., total travel time
and repair loss). The uncertainties associated with the risk evaluation process must also be included within a
generalized ship routing decision making framework. During a mission, a ship must always satisfy safety and
serviceability requirements. In some cases, marine vessels are forced to follow certain routes while
simultaneously handling time and distance constraints; this combination of dire conditions puts ships in danger
of accruing damage that may negatively impact society and the surrounding environment. Ultimately, ship
mission performance assessment is of vital importance for ship managers since it provides them guidance for
the real-time decision making.
1
Graduate Research Assistant, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering Research Center for Advanced
Technology for Large Structural Systems (ATLSS Center), Lehigh University, 117 ATLSS Dr., Bethlehem, PA 18015-4729, USA,
yod210@lehigh.edu
2
Professor and the Fazlur R. Khan Endowed Chair of Structural Engineering and Architecture, Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, Engineering Research Center for Advanced Technology for Large Structural Systems (ATLSS Center),
Lehigh University, 117 ATLSS Dr., Bethlehem, PA 18015-4729, USA, dan.frangopol@lehigh.edu, *Corresponding Author.
3
Graduate Research Assistant, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering Research Center for Advanced
Technology for Large Structural Systems (ATLSS Center), Lehigh University, 117 ATLSS Dr., Bethlehem, PA 18015-4729, USA,
sas711@lehigh.edu
© 2016. This manuscript version is made available under the Elsevier user license
http://www.elsevier.com/open-access/userlicense/1.0/