A Framework to Evaluate the Benefit of
Seismic Upgrading
Panagiotis Galanis,
a)
M.EERI, Anastasia Sycheva,
b)
Wanda Mimra,
c)
and
Božidar Stojadinović,
d)
M.EERI
Earthquakes are among the most catastrophic natural disasters. Existing
buildings constructed in earthquake prone locations prior to 1970s generally
do not meet the criteria of modern seismic design codes. Structural seismic
upgrading is a very effective strategy to mitigate the earthquake risk for existing
structures. However, in many cases, seismic upgrade design is criticized as overly
conservative resulting in expensive structural interventions. The present study
proposes a framework that combines key elements of the performance-based seis-
mic design with the actuarial “frequency-severity” method to perform a cost-
benefit analysis of structural seismic upgrading. A curve that quantifies the
avoided losses and casualties for different levels of partial seismic upgrade at
the site of interest is introduced. This curve provides a tool that enables engineers
to optimize rapidly, at a preliminary design level, the seismic upgrading strategy
using a cost-benefit analysis. The proposed framework is applied to existing resi-
dential buildings located in two different seismic hazard environments, namely
Zurich (Switzerland) and L’Aquila (Italy), to identify the optimal seismic upgrad-
ing level. [DOI: 10.1193/120316EQS221M]
INTRODUCTION
Earthquakes are among the most feared natural hazards: they are unpredictable, and they
cause loss of lives and direct damage to the built infrastructure. Furthermore, earthquakes
have substantial indirect consequences with cascading and systemic effects, such as business
interruption, loss of employment, decreased tax revenues, impaired institutional capacity and
a rise in poverty levels. Thus, developing holistic strategies for mitigation and management
of seismic risk is of critical importance. A well-developed understanding of the likelihood
and potential impacts of earthquake hazard provides the basis for elaborating and assessing
the full range of risk management strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse consequences of
disastrous earthquake events.
One of the main earthquake risk management strategies is risk reduction. The objective
is to reduce the seismic vulnerability of the affected structures and consequently the
a)
Research Associate, ETH Risk Center, Zurich, Switzerland 8092
b)
Doctoral Student, ETH Zurich, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Switzerland 8092
c)
Professor, Chair of Risk and Insurance Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland 8092
d)
Professor, Chair of Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, ETH Zurich, Switzerland 8092
Earthquake Spectra, Volume 34, No. 2, pages 527–548, May 2018; © 2018, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
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