International Journal of Renewable Energy Development 11 (2) 2022: 569-580 | 569 IJRED-ISSN: 2252-4940.Copyright © 2022. The Authors. Published by CBIORE Contents list available at IJRED website Int. Journal of Renewable Energy Development (IJRED) Journal homepage: https://ijred.undip.ac.id Planning and Risk Analysis in Projects of Procurement of Agricultural Raw Materials for the Production of Environmentally Friendly Fuel Anatoliy Tryhuba a , Serhii Komarnitskyi b , Inna Tryhuba a , Taras Hutsol c , Serhii Yermakov d* , Andrii Muzychenko e , Tetiana Muzychenko e , Iryna Horetska f a Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Lviv National Agrarian University, Ukraine b Faculty of Engineering and Technology, State Agrarian and Engineering University in Podilya, Ukraine c Department of Mechanics and Agroecosystems Engineering, Polissia National University, Ukraine d Educational and Scientific Laboratory “DAK GPS”, State Agrarian and Engineering University in Podilya, Ukraine e Economic Faculty, Department of Statistics and Economic Analysis, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine f LLC “360-EkoTech Company”, Poland Abstract. The purpose of the research is to substantiate the method of planning the need for technical equipment of corn waste collection projects for the production of environmentally friendly fuel, which is based on simulation of work taking into account the changing design environment. During the research, the methods of simulation modeling of corn waste collection projects for the production of environmentally friendly fuel were used. The methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics were used, which provided the substantiation of models of natural-climatic and production conditions of corn waste collection projects for the production of environmentally friendly fuel. As a result of the conducted research the method and statistical simulation model of planning the need for technical equipment of projects on collecting the waste of corn for production of environmentally friendly fuel has been developed. They provided an assessment of the timely implementation of work in selected fields, taking into account the changing design environment, which leads to the risk of the specific cost of corn waste disposal. A simulated model for the collection of maize waste available for disposal, provided that the balance of organic carbon in the fields is maintained, and tested for adequacy according to the Mann-Whitney test. Based on the use of the developed simulation model, the indicators of the use of technical equipment and the trend of changing the risk of the specific cost of disposal of corn waste are substantiated. Rational scenarios for the implementation of projects for which there are no risks for a given project environment are identified. Keywords: project, harvesting, corn waste, environmentally friendly fuel, risk Article history: Received: 30 th Nov 2021; Revised: 25 th January 2022; Accepted: 20 th March 2022; Available online: 15 th April 2022 How to cite this article: Tryhuba, A., Komarnitskyi, S., Tryhuba, I., Hutsol, T., Yermakov, S., Muzychenko, A., Muzychenko, T. and Horetska, I. (2022). Planning and Risk Analysis in Projects of Procurement of Agricultural Raw Materials for the Production of Environmentally Friendly Fuel. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 11(2), 569-580 https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.2022.43011 1. Introduction There is currently a need to address the EU's environmental security (Alberti et al. 2021, Hutsol et al. 2021, EBA 2020, GDP, 2020). One of the components of this problem concerns greenhouse gas emissions in various spheres of human activity. This has led to increased EU requirements for the quality of raw materials for environmentally friendly fuels. At the same time, there are a number of scientific and applied tasks for the implementation of European Green Deal projects and risk assessment (Von der Leyen et al. 2019, EGD). Fossil fuels remain the dominant source of raw materials for energy production in many countries (Hutsol * Corresponding author: dakgps@pdatu.edu.ua et al. 2021, Tryhuba et al. 2020, Bielski et al. 2021). At the same time, it is depleted and more expensive every year, due to their shortage in the market, and also belongs to the environmentally hazardous types of raw materials for energy production (Marks-Bielska et al. 2021). At the same time, some European countries pay special attention to alternative raw materials for energy production - agricultural waste (Bielski et al. 2021). It is the use of agricultural raw materials for energy production in countries that produce crop products that can ensure their energy security and balance the achievement of their energy policy goals (Winzer 2012, Ang 2015). Research Article