ANALYSIS OF PRECURSORS TO MULTIPLY CONTROLLED PROBLEM BEHAVIOR: A REPLICATION MEGAN A. BORLASE,JASON C. VLADESCU,APRIL N. KISAMORE, SHARON A. REEVE, AND JAMIE L. FETZER CALDWELL UNIVERSITY We replicated Fritz, Iwata, Hammond, and Bloom (2013) by evaluating the efficacy of an experimental methodology to identify precursors to aggression displayed by an adolescent with autism spectrum disorder. Using their trial-based precursor analysis, we identified seven precur- sors to aggression. Next, we compared the outcomes of separate precursor and aggression func- tional analyses and showed that both precursors and aggression were multiply controlled by the same variables. Key words: aggression, functional analysis, precursor behavior Researchers have evaluated procedures aimed at identifying precursors to problem behavior in an attempt to address some of the limits of functional analysis (FA) methodology (e.g., Borrero & Borrero, 2008; Dracobly & Smith, 2012; Fritz, Iwata, Hammond, & Bloom, 2013; Herscovitch, Roscoe, Libby, Bourret, & Ahearn, 2009; Smith & Churchill, 2002). Pre- cursors are behaviors (e.g., vocalizing negatively, feet stomping, hand flapping) that reliably occur prior to, and are functionally related to, target problem behavior. Thus, conducting FAs of pre- cursors rather than target behavior may require fewer resources, be less dangerous for the con- sumer and therapist, and be more acceptable in certain environments (e.g., schools). Some researchers have largely relied on care- giver report and informal observations to initially determine potential precursors (e.g., Borrero & Borrero, 2008; Dracobly & Smith, 2012). These methods may be problematic as they may result in potential false positives or false negatives (Dracobly & Smith, 2012; Fritz et al., 2013). A false positive occurs when a procedure incor- rectly identifies a behavior as a precursor, whereas a false negative occurs when a procedure fails to identify a behavior as a precursor. False positives and false negatives are problematic if practitioners treat behaviors that are not precursors or fail to treat those that are, which in turn may have min- imal impact on the problem behavior targeted. In an attempt to address this potential limitation, Fritz et al. (2013) developed and evaluated an experimental method for identifying precursors. The experimenters conducted a trial-based analy- sis with conditions similar to an FA. During each trial, observers collected data on potential precur- sors and target behavior and then calculated conditional probabilities to determine likely pre- cursors (i.e., behaviors that were followed by the target behavior and did not occur in the absence of the target behavior). Next, the experimenters conducted independent FAs of the identified pre- cursors and target behaviors for each participant and found the same function for seven of eight participants, whose target behavior was main- tained by a single function. However, for one participant, the outcome was only a partial match (i.e., the precursor FA showed a tangible func- tion, whereas the target behavior FA showed both a tangible and an escape function). The outcomes of Fritz et al. (2013) suggest that their trial-based analysis was a valid experi- mental method for determining precursors to target behavior maintained by a single function; Address correspondence to Jason C. Vladescu, Depart- ment of Applied Behavior Analysis, Caldwell University, 120 Bloomfield Avenue, Caldwell, NJ 07006. Email: jvladescu@caldwell.edu doi: 10.1002/jaba.398 JOURNAL OF APPLIED BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS 2017, 9999, n/a–n/a NUMBER 9999 () © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior 1