Report December 2013 Executive summary By Maria Gabrielsen Jumbert and Øystein H. Rolandsen After the split: post-secession negotiations between South Sudan and Sudan 1 South Sudan’s secession from Sudan on July 9th 2011 has changed the relative imbalance of power and international standing of the two parties, bringing South Sudan more on par with Sudan. Compared to the negotiations preceding the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, less is at stake in the current AUHIP process. However, delaying a solution to outstanding issues until after South Sudan’s independence has made it more difficult to resolve these issues. Several are still far from being settled. This report analyses how South Sudan’s newly won sovereignty has affected the two parties’ relative strength and the positioning of external actors involved in or following the negotiations, and how it has changed the parties’ approaches to the outstanding issues, i.e. oil wealth, the delineation of the border, security in the border areas and the issue of Abyei. Introduction On July 9th 2011 South Sudan became an independent country. The first two years as a sovereign state have been a bumpy ride, not only for South Sudan, but also for Sudan, its northern neighbour. Both countries have struggled with periphery rebellions, political turbulence and strained economies linked to a cluster of unresolved issues between these two countries. Most of these issues are legacies of the conflicts and relations that existed before South Sudan’s secession. This report sheds light on the impact of South Sudan’s independence. More specifically, it explains how the new situation has affected: • the negotiation framework; • the relative strength of the two parties; • how other countries and multilateral institutions are involved; and • the status of and future outlook for the unresolved issues. From domestic conflict to international dispute: a shift in negotiating frameworks The referendum of January 2011 resulted in an overwhelm- ing majority favouring South Sudan’s secession, necessitat- ing negotiations over the terms of the new country’s independence and future relations with the remainder of Sudan. Post-independence relations between the two countries bear a striking resemblance to the pre-2011 period. Indeed, these continuities might even overshadow the fundamental changes that have indeed taken place in the formal status of the negotiations between the two countries and the negotiators, the relative strength of the two parties, and the new setting – which has also affected the goals and strategies of the leaders involved. Negotiated since 2002, the Comprehensive Peace Agree- ment (CPA) was signed on January 9th 2005, marking the end of a long civil war that began in 1983. Juridically, the CPA process may be described as domestic asymmetrical negotiations between the government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), but in practice they resembled bilateral negotiations between two governments, 2 i.e. a rebel movement negotiating on behalf 1 Research for this report was carried out in the period May 15th-September 15th 2013, including a visit to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and is based on written sources (official documents and press briefings) and interviews with key observers and participants in the negotiations. 2 Interviews with Norway’s special envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, Endre Stiansen, June 5th 2013; and Alex de Waal, research professor, Fletcher School, Tufts University, former senior advisor to the AUHIP, June 12th 2013.