Citation: Polydoropoulou, A.;
Tsirimpa, A.; Karakikes, I.; Tsouros, I.;
Pagoni, I. Mode Choice Modeling for
Sustainable Last-Mile Delivery: The
Greek Perspective. Sustainability 2022,
14, 8976. https://doi.org/10.3390/
su14158976
Academic Editors: Michael Madas
and Vasilis Zeimpekis
Received: 27 May 2022
Accepted: 20 July 2022
Published: 22 July 2022
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sustainability
Article
Mode Choice Modeling for Sustainable Last-Mile Delivery:
The Greek Perspective
Amalia Polydoropoulou , Athena Tsirimpa, Ioannis Karakikes * , Ioannis Tsouros and Ioanna Pagoni
Department of Shipping, Trade and Transport, University of the Aegean, 82100 Chios, Greece;
polydor@aegean.gr (A.P.); atsirimpa@aegean.gr (A.T.); jtsouros@aegean.gr (I.T.); ipagoni@aegean.gr (I.P.)
* Correspondence: ikarakikes@aegean.gr
Abstract: As the private sector is under heavy pressure to serve the ever-growing e-commerce market,
the potential of implementing new disruptive mobility/logistics services for increasing the level of the
current last-mile delivery (LMD) services, is emerging. Vehicle automation technology, characterized
by high-capacity utilization and asset intensity, appears to be a prominent response to easing this
pressure, while contributing to mitigation of the adverse effects associated with the deployment of
LMD activities. This research studied the perceptions of Greek end-users/consumers, regarding the
introduction of autonomous/automated/driverless vehicles (AVs) in innovative delivery services.
To achieve this, a mixed logit model was developed, based on a Stated Preferences (SP) experiment,
designed to capture the demand of alternative last-mile delivery modes/services, such as drones,
pods, and autonomous vans, compared to traditional delivery services. The results show that
the traditional delivery, i.e., having a dedicated delivery person who picks up the parcels at a
consolidation point and delivers them directly to the recipients while driving a non-autonomous
vehicle—conventional van, bike, e-bike, e-scooter—remains the most acceptable delivery method.
Moreover, the analysis indicated that there is no interest yet in deploying home deliveries with drones
or AVs, and that participants are unwilling to pay extra charges for having access to more advanced
last-mile delivery modes/services. Thus, it is important to promote the benefits of innovative modes
and services for LMD, in order to increase public awareness and receptivity in Greece.
Keywords: last-mile delivery; autonomous vehicles; drones; mode choice; mixed logit model
1. Introduction
E-commerce statistics show a steep increase in trading goods and services over com-
puter networks in the last decade. The results of the 2020 survey on ICT usage and
e-commerce in enterprises, released in February 2021 by Eurostat [1], showed that the
enterprise turnover generated from e-sales for the period 2010–2019 increased from 13%
to 20%. Yet, this was only the beginning. The COVID-19 crisis created an additional vast
growth in e-commerce, which no one could have foreseen. In 2020, 73% of internet users in
the European Union—which corresponds to 290.53 million people [2]—shopped online,
while 127.03 million people bought or ordered goods or services between 100–500 Euros
between March to May 2021 [3]. This new reality created demand-shocks on the economy’s
infrastructure, influencing multiple sectors related to transport and logistics, i.e., food,
groceries, and parcel deliveries.
The rise of e-commerce is a major factor in growing commercial vehicle movements,
particularly in urban areas [4]. Considering that last-mile delivery (LMD) is recognized as
the worst-performing part of the supply chain [5], one should expect excessive burdening
of the urban environment, increased costs, and low efficiency as regards the delivery
process. And while the private sector is striving to serve this growing market, a significant
increase in on-demand deliveries, employing the existing traditional physical means of
transport, will lead to increased traffic, emissions, and collisions. To appropriately address
Sustainability 2022, 14, 8976. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14158976 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability