Spatially-Distributed Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis
Maryna Zharikova
1
, Gonzalo Barbeito
1
, Marian Sorin Nistor
1
and Stefan Wolfgang Pickl
1
1
Universität der Bundeswehr, Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 393GEB, München, Neubiberg, 85579, Germany
Abstract
The paper dwells on the problem of multi-hazard risk analysis and management. The authors identify
some gaps in existing disaster risk reduction research projects. To overcome these gaps a
comprehensive approach to multi-hazard risk analysis is needed that considers all components of
multi-hazard risk in dynamics with a spatial reference. The development of such an approach is the
purpose of the article.
The risk is presented in the form of the following components: hazard characteristics (danger,
intensity, area affected by hazard), vulnerable object characteristics (location, vulnerability, speed of
recovery), as well as spatio-temporal threat measured in time it takes for the hazard to reach the
object. It's proposed to present hazard risk in dynamics as passing through the following three stages:
potential risk, risk of threat, and risk of destruction. Individual risk is presented as a trajectory in n-
dimensional space of its parameters, multi-risk is assessed using operation of taking maximum.
The proposed approach to risk analysis allows diagnosing the situation and making decisions
throughout the entire disaster risk management cycle. Potential risk assessment can serve as a basis
for long-term adaptation, active risk assessment can serve as a basis for early warning and response
actions.
Keywords1
Multi-hazard risk analysis, threat, danger.
1. Introduction & Related Works
Infrastructure owners and operators are increasingly faced with the challenge of delivering
resilient infrastructure and mitigating the effects of multiple hazards and climate change effects.
Therefore, multi-hazard risk analysis methodologies are critical for infrastructure protection.
The risk from a hazard, especially from multiple hazards, is a broad concept that depends on
many components characterizing both the source of risk, namely hazard (or hazards), and risk
receiver, namely assets or community affected by hazards.
Currently, there is no single definition for the notion of risk itself and its components such as
vulnerability, resilience, et cetera.
CITRisk’2021: 2nd International Workshop on Computational & Information Technologies for Risk-Informed Systems, September
16–17, 2021, Kherson, Ukraine
EMAIL: maryna.zharikova@unibw.de (M.Zharikova); gonzalo.barbeito@unibw.de (G.Barbeito); sorin.nistor@unibw.de
(M.S.Nistor); stefan.pickl@unibw.de (S.W.Pickl)
ORCID: 0000-0001-6144-480X (M.Zharikova); 0000-0003-1827-9989 (M.S.Nistor); 0000-0001-5549-6259 (S.W.Pickl)
© 2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)