Vol.:(0123456789)
Natural Hazards
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03698-x
1 3
ORIGINAL PAPER
Earthquake readiness in volatile regions: the case of Israel
Deborah F. Shmueli
1,2
· Ehud Segal
2
· Michal Ben Gal
2
· Eran Feitelson
3
·
Amnon Reichman
2,4
Received: 12 August 2017 / Accepted: 30 July 2019
© Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract
The Jordan Rift Valley is a high-risk low-occurrence zone for earthquakes, with docu-
mented incidences within the last millennium causing widespread destruction. This
research examines the implications of the immediate risks for earthquake readiness. Due to
data availability, we focus on Israel’s readiness for earthquakes and compare our fndings
with a cursory review of readiness in the proximate countries. Readiness refers to mitiga-
tion and preparedness (before), response (during) and recovery (after). The immediate and
palpable threats in the region are wars and terrorism, and our hypothesis is that govern-
ance culture in this volatile region is geared toward capacities and expertise which have
been developed to address national security threats, characterized by emphasis on quick
response. We expect to see a bias toward immediate response with regard to earthquake
readiness as well, with attention also paid to preparedness. Accordingly, we hypothesize
that other aspects of readiness, such as retroftting of buildings and infrastructure in the
mitigation category, lag behind in countries surrounding the Jordan Rift. To test this, we
develop and apply a regulatory system scan and assessment methodology to the Israeli
case. The methodology includes structured mapping and evaluation of the relevant regu-
latory system as well as actual policy outputs. The process includes inputs from policy
makers, experts, and stakeholders. Findings show that the country’s earthquake readiness
regime is indeed heavily biased toward immediate response which is continually advancing
and improving, managed by security-related bodies. In contrast, mitigation eforts are def-
cient and little is being done to improve the situation. A survey of readiness eforts of other
countries along the Jordan Rift points to a similar situation.
Keywords Earthquake readiness · Middle East · Regulatory system scan and assessment ·
Regulatory impact assessment · Risk management · Israel
* Deborah F. Shmueli
deborah@geo.haifa.ac.il
1
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Mount Carmel,
3498838 Haifa, Israel
2
The Minerva Center for the Rule of Law Under Extreme Conditions, University of Haifa, Haifa,
Israel
3
Department of Geography, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
4
Faculty of Law, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel