1 Quo Vadis Energy System Transformation? October 15, 2022 Aviel Verbruggen, University of Antwerp https://www.avielverbruggen.be Contents: Foreword .......................................................................................................................... 2 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 2 1. The context in which the energy transformation is taking place ................................... 3 2. A little more information about energy .......................................................................... 5 3. Civilisation and Energy..................................................................................................... 8 4. Energy system transformations..................................................................................... 11 5. What policies can prevent climate collapse? ................................................................ 15 Overview of Section 5 ........................................................................................................ 16 5.1 Climate change is the key problem ............................................................................. 16 5.2 Learning from a missed opportunity for energy transformation ............................... 17 5.3 Drivers of human actions............................................................................................. 20 5.4 Self-governance of sovereign nations in global climate policy .................................. 21 5.5 Transformation requires U-turns ................................................................................ 23 5.6 Act Now, But How? ...................................................................................................... 26 5.6.1 New voices............................................................................................................. 27 5.6.2 Paradigm shift ........................................................................................................ 27 5.6.3 Transformation of energy systems ........................................................................ 29 5.6.4 What matters is power .......................................................................................... 30 5.6.5 Navigating turbulent crisis situations .................................................................... 36 Endnotes ........................................................................................................................ 37 Acronyms CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis Ce Carbon emissions COP Conference of Parties (to the UNFCCC) ETS Emissions Trading System Fit-for-55 4053 pages package EU documents for implementing EU’s Green Deal GHG Greenhouse gases HVAC Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning KPI Key Performance Indicator SDG Sustainable Development Goal SD-OCF Sustainable Development as described in Our Common Future (1987) SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) USD United States Dollar WCED World Commission on Energy and Development, author of Our Common Future