Determinants of Agricultural
Productivity in Ethiopia: ARDL
Approach
Aynalem Shita
1,2
, Nand Kumar
1
and Seema Singh
1
Abstract
This study analyses factors affecting agricultural productivity in Ethiopia for the period of 1990–2016
by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Both the bounds test and the error correction
model confirmed the existence of co-integration (long-run relationship) between the variables included
in the model. The results revealed that cereal productivity is positively influenced by use of fertiliser and
real gross domestic product (GDP) both in the long run and in the short run. While size of arable land
influences productivity positively in the long run, its short-run effect was found to be negative. Hence,
the government and other concerned authorities should work to enhance farmers’ use of improved
technologies, such as fertiliser, by ensuring its timely availability at an affordable price, encouraging
farmers to participate on alternative sources of income such as off-farm activities and bringing addi-
tional area under cereal production to improve agricultural productivity.
Keywords
Determinants, agricultural productivity, ARDL, Ethiopia
JEL Codes: O13, O33
I. Introduction
Agriculture remains a crucial sector in the Ethiopian economy. It accounts for 36.7 per cent of the gross
domestic product (GDP) and generates 88.8 per cent of export earnings. The sector is the major source
of livelihood, and its growth is a major driver of poverty reduction in rural Ethiopia. Towards the goal of
ensuring food security in the country, the Ethiopian government has planned to increase agricultural
productivity through the adoption of modern technologies among other strategies (National Planning
Commission, 2016).
In Ethiopia, cereals are the main food crops in terms of both the area they are planted (80.71%) and
volume of production obtained (87.48%). The major cereal crops produced in the country are Maize, teff,
sorghum and wheat, which made 27.43 per cent, 17.26 per cent, 16.89 per cent and 15.17 per cent of the
grain production, respectively (CSA, 2018). In Ethiopia, though substantial increase has been observed
Original Article
1
Department of Humanities, Delhi Technological University, New Delhi, Delhi, India.
2
Department of Economics, Debre Markos University, Ethiopia.
Corresponding author:
Aynalem Shita, Department of Humanities, Delhi Technological University, New Delhi, Delhi 110042, India.
E-mail: ayn_sh@yahoo.com
The Indian Economic Journal
1–10
© 2020 Indian Economic Association
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DOI: 10.1177/0019466220941418
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