Usability of monthly ERFS (Extended Range Forecast System) to
predict maize yield using DSSAT (Decision Support System for
Agro-technology Transfer) model over Erode District of Tamil Nadu
Harinarayanan M.N*
Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agriculture University, Coimbatore
(Tamil Nadu), India
Manivannan. V
Department of Agronomy, Tamil Nadu Agriculture University, Coimbatore
(Tamil Nadu), India
Ga Dheebakaran
Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agriculture University, Coimbatore
(Tamil Nadu), India
Guna. M
Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agriculture University, Coimbatore
(Tamil Nadu), India
*Corresponding author. Email: hariharinz206@gmail.com
Article Info
https://doi.org/10.31018/
jans.v14iSI.3709
Received: April 19, 2022
Revised: June 21, 2022
Accepted: June 27, 2022
This work is licensed under Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0). © : Author (s). Publishing rights @ ANSF.
ISSN : 0974-9411 (Print), 2231-5209 (Online)
journals.ansfoundation.org
Research Article
INTRODUCTION
Vital monsoons in India are the southwest monsoon
season June–September (JJAS) and also northeast
monsoon season, October–December (OND). Utmost
states of the country meet their heaviest rainfall during
the southwest monsoon season except for the south-
eastern portion (Tamil Nadu), which receives maximum
rainfall during the northeast monsoon (Attri and Tyagi,
2010). India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues
weather forecasts for planning and decision-making in
agriculture, water management and policymakers dur-
ing both monsoon seasons. IMD disseminates weather
forecasts at different temporal scales that are short
range, medium range, extended range and seasonal
scales used for tactical and strategic decisions in agri-
culture and allied sectors.
Extended Range Forecast Service (ERFS) is highly
beneficial for crop planning and midterm correction at
the farm level. Another way, it is also useful for the poli-
Abstract
Extended Range of Forecast Service (ERFS) is highly useful for planning of cropping season and midterm correction at the
farm level. The medium-range and long-range forecast validation have many studies, whereas ERF has less that needs to be
studied. Maize is an important field crop in India after rice and wheat. Therefore, the prediction of maize yield has significant
importance. In the present study, ERFS data were validated by correlation analysis using monthly observed rainfall frequency
and intensity. This data was imported to DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer) to simulate maize
yield of Erode district of Tamil Nadu. The model output and actual yield data from Erode were compared. Forecasted monthly
total rainfall was correlated at a rate of 0.97r value with that observed. Yield simulation of maize was done using DSSAT by
integrating ERFS data and the observed monthly data. Mean per cent deviation among the yields of observed weather and the
disaggregated one tended to be -15.7 %. The average deviation between the yields of ERF forecasted weather data and actual
yield was very high ( -29.7 % ) for Erode. Mean % deviation between the yields of observed weather and the actual yield was -
14.7 %. Downscaled and accurate weather forecasts could be facilitated for yield prediction of crops by DSSAT model. Yield
prediction by the model under observed weather was convenient and usable. Model under -predicted the yields when using ERF
data. Both model and ERF forecast need to be improved further for higher resolution.
Keywords: ERFS, DSSAT, Erode district, Rainfall, Maize, Yield prediction
How to Cite
Harinarayanan, M. N. et al. (2021). Usability of monthly ERFS (Extended Range Forecast System) to predict maize yield using
DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer) model over Erode District of Tamil Nadu . Journal of Applied
and Natural Science, 14 (SI), 244 - 250. https://doi.org/10.31018/jans.v14iSI.3709