ADVANCED REVIEW
Assessing precipitation trends in the Americas with historical
data: A review
Leila M. V. Carvalho
Department of Geography, University of
California, Santa Barbara, California
Correspondence
Leila M. V. Carvalho, Department of
Geography, University of California, Santa
Barbara, CA 93106.
Email: leila@eri.ucsb.edu
Edited by Sophie Lewis, Domain Editor,
and Mike Hulme, Editor-in-Chief
Abstract
North, Central, and South America (collectively referred to as the Americas) extend
across two hemispheres, and together cover approximately 28% of Earth's land area
and are home to about 13% of the world's population. Unique ecosystems, diversi-
fied cultures, and communities that inhabit the region rely on precipitation deliv-
ered yearly by multiple systems, including mid-latitudes storms, the North and
South American Monsoons, and tropical storms and hurricanes. The rapid warming
of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans combined with internal variability of the cli-
mate system, have modified precipitation patterns from the tropics to high latitudes.
In the Americas, instrumental records have shown evidence of upward trends in
extreme precipitation (amount, intensity, and frequency) in many areas. The most
consistent evidence of precipitation trends occurs in mid-latitudes of North Amer-
ica and in the subtropics of South America. Recent studies have indicated a pole-
ward shift of heavy precipitation associated with South American Monsoon.
Nonetheless, the deficient network of rain gauges in vast areas over tropical Ame-
ricas limits the assessment of trends in regions with heavy rainfall amounts. Addi-
tionally, observed trends in the North America monsoon precipitation are difficult
to separate from the contribution of tropical storms and hurricanes. Furthermore,
coupled modes such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulate precipitation in the
Americas, from the tropics to the extratropics, and these teleconnections are rele-
vant to assess precipitation trends using historical records. This review evaluates
all these complex issues focusing on observations based on instrumental datasets.
This article is categorized under:
Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change
KEYWORDS
Central America, extreme precipitation trends, North America, precipitation trends, South America
1 | INTRODUCTION
One of the most relevant, complex, and largely unknown impacts of global warming is the change in the spatiotemporal pat-
terns of precipitation over land. The magnitude of these changes and how they will affect the distribution of precipitation (rain
and snowfall) in continental areas will set the limits of water resources for billions of people and determine the fate of many
ecosystems.
Received: 11 November 2018 Revised: 23 September 2019 Accepted: 4 October 2019
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.627
WIREs Clim Change. 2019;e627. wires.wiley.com/climatechange © 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 1 of 21
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.627