Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Vol. 18, No. 1, April 2020, pp. 24~31
ISSN: 2502-4752, DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v18.i1.pp24-31 24
Journal homepage: http://ijeecs.iaescore.com
Forecasting rupiah exchange rate with learning vector
quantization neural network
Linawati, Made Sudarma, I Putu Oka Wisnawa
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Udayana University, Indonesia
Article Info ABSTRACT
Article history:
Received Jul 23, 2019
Revised Sep 26, 2019
Accepted Oct 8, 2019
The classification technique and data forecasting will probably be one of the
techniques that will often be needed in handling or managing big data.
So, from that the author analyzes the possible development of the existing
algorithms. The purpose is to find possibilities in the use of reliable
algorithms in a particular field, then can be adopted and implemented to
develop forecasting techniques in the future. Based on these considerations,
the authors conducted experiments by applying LVQNN to conduct
shortterm forecasting on daily period of the Rupiah exchange rate.
The literature that is used as a reference is the discovery of architectural data
classification processes that resemble forecasting techniques. So, when there
is a combination of Rupiah exchange histories, it is possible to find these
combinations into certain classes based on predetermined parameters and
historical data combination data and forecast values in the past. In this
research the factors chosen as indicators that affect the Rupiah exchange rate
are the amount of exports, the amount of imports, the inflation rate and also
the world oil price. In this research the highest accuracy value in the testing
process for the population reached 99.0991%. The increase in the percentage
value of forecasting accuracy is influenced by the composition of the data.
In this study the formation of data composition is influenced by distinct data.
The selection of parameters which become distinct claused determines how
the composition of the data will be formed. If the composition of the data is
not correct, the test results will not be good. If the number of weights vector
is smaller than the input data, the forecasting accuracy will decrease. Because
the weight vector cannot represent data combinations that used during
training or testing.
Keywords:
Artificial neural network
Exchange rate
Forcasting
Learning vector quantization
Copyright © 2020 Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science.
All rights reserved.
Corresponding Author:
Linawati,
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,
Faculty of Engineering,
Udayana University, Indonesia.
Email: linawati@unud.ac.id
1. INTRODUCTION
Currency exchange rate plays an important role in financial markets. Exchange rates are determined
in the foreign exchange market. Exchange rate stability is one important consideration for investors to take
investment policies. If the exchange rate has high fluctuations, this can affect interest rates, commodity prices
and a country's economic policy [1-4]. Then, if it is continued for a long time, it will affect investment policy.
Thus, some application of forecasting techniques can help to read the direction of the movement of currency
exchange rates, so that it can help investors in reading investment opportunities based on a country's
exchange rate factor. Therefore, the risk of failure can be minimized and profit opportunities can be
optimized.