JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ECONOMIES, VOLUME 6, NUMBER 3, PP. 377-90 Modelling the Determinants of Government Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa David Fielding, 1 University of Nottingham The paper examines the factors determining aggregate public expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a modelling framework which draws on insights from the theory of the private consumer. Of particular interest is the extent to which countries of different kinds are limited in their ability to adjust borrowing and fiscal revenue. Whilst all countries appear to face substantial borrowing and revenue constraints, significant differences emerge between low- and high-debt countries. 1. Introduction A number of recent papers have investigated the consequences of variability in fiscal revenue in developing countries. 2 Revenue in LDCs is typically more variable than elsewhere, and revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa the most variable. This is partly explained by a higher degree of dependence on tariffs combined with highly volatile terms of trade. Revenue instability is a potential problem because with limitations in borrowing it could lead to high variability in public expenditure, with disastrous consequences for economic development. However, attempts to quantify the relationship between revenue and expenditure have met with limited success. The more adventurous papers such as Lim (1983) construct regressions which include borrowing terms as explanatory variables, ignoring the likely, simultaneity between borrowing and expenditure. The more rigorous papers such as Bleaney et al. (1995) restrict themselves to an analysis of 1 1 am grateful to Chris Milner, David Greenaway and two anonymous referees for comments on earlier versions of this paper. All errors and omissions are my own. 2 See Bleaney et al. (1995) and Chambas (1994) for an overview of this literature.