Marine Policy 124 (2021) 104353 0308-597X/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Evaluating the potential for an increased and sustainable commercial fsheries production across multiple jurisdictions and diverse fsheries David C. Smith a, b, * , Malcolm Haddon a, c , Andr´ e E. Punt a, d , Caleb Gardner c , L. Richard Little a , Stephen Mayfeld e , Michael F. O’Neill f , Thor Saunders g , John Stewart h , Brent Wise i , Elizabeth A. Fulton a, b , Simon Conron j a CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia b Centre for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia c Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Taroona, Tasmania 7053, Australia d School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195, USA e South Australian Research and Development Institute, 2 Hamra Avenue, West Beach, South Australia 5024, Australia f Maroochy Research Facility, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, 47 Mayers Road, PO Box 5083 SCMC, Nambour, Queensland 4560, Australia g Fisheries Research, Department of Primary Industry and Resources, PO Box 3000, Darwin, Northern Territory 0801, Australia h Fisheries Research, NSW Department of Primary Industries | Fisheries, Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia i Aquatic Science and Assessment | Ecosystems, Sustainability and Biosecurity, Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, 39 Northside Drive, Hillarys, Western Australia 6025, Australia j Management and Science, Victorian Fisheries Authority, 2A Bellarine Hwy, Queenscliff, Victoria 3225, Australia A R T I C L E INFO Keywords: Australia Commercial fsheries Total production Stock assessment Maximum sustainable yield Catch-MSY ABSTRACT We describe a frst estimate of the potential to increase production from Australia’s commercial fsheries based on the difference between current catches and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). MSY is not being advocated as a target reference point but enables a level of consistency across species and/or jurisdictions with different reference points. MSY estimates were obtained for 290 species/stocks that comprised 84% of annual landings. 75% of the estimates were computed using methods applied specifcally for this study, aided by an assessment framework, and supporting software. The catch-MSY method was used extensively given the lack of formal as- sessments for many species, and the limitations of taking this approach are discussed. The results indicated that potential production could be more than double the current national catch (an increase over current catches of about 124%), but potential increases varied considerably among Federal, State and Territory jurisdictions. The potential for increased production was particularly infuenced by predictions for highly productive small pelagic fshes, although ignoring the potential for increased catches of these species still led to an estimate of an increase of almost 80% over current catches. Other factors such as whether an increase in production has market demand are also clearly important, along with other social and economic issues. Impacts on ecosystem sustainability and the consequences of climate change were beyond the scope of this study and would need to be considered in separate analyses. However, in making our estimates of potential production we acknowledged the issues with attempting to use single species approaches to provide fsh community wide estimates and acted conservatively with our interpretation. Consequently, the results presented in this paper provide useful insights into possible biologically sustainable catches and the potential for increased production. 1. Introduction By world standards, Australian fsheries are small in terms of pro- duction [1], but they have a large geographic, social and political footprint. Australia’s fsheries are managed by the Commonwealth (Federal), State and the Northern Territory governments. In general, the States and Northern Territory are responsible for fsheries out to 3 nm and the Commonwealth from 3 nm to the edge of Australia’s Exclusive * Corresponding author at: CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia. E-mail address: David.c.smith2@bigpond.com (D.C. Smith). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Marine Policy journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/marpol https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104353 Received 6 July 2020; Received in revised form 18 November 2020; Accepted 26 November 2020