Lancaster University Management School Working Paper 2010/010 Validation in models of climate change and forecasting accuracy Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes The Department of Management Science Lancaster University Management School Lancaster LA1 4YX UK © Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission, provided that full acknowledgement is given. The LUMS Working Papers series can be accessed at http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/publications/ LUMS home page: http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/