Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning, Vol. 9, No. 3, 2013 165
Copyright © 2013 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
Qualitative decision-making model of investment into
start-up companies
Alzbeta Kubickova
Faculty of Business and Management,
Brno University of Technology,
Kolejni 2906/4, 612 00 Brno, Czech Republic
E-mail: kubickova@fbm.vutbr.cz
Mirko Dohnal*
Faculty of Business and Management,
Department of Economics,
Brno University of Technology,
Kolejni 2906/4, 612 00 Brno, Czech Republic
E-mail: dedicova@lib.vutbr.cz
*Corresponding author
Karel Doubravský
Faculty of Business and Management,
Department of Informatics,
Brno University of Technology,
Kolejni 2906/4, 612 00 Brno, Czech Republic
E-mail: doubravsky@fbm.vutbr.cz
Abstract: The investments into start-up companies are often unique.
The results are difficult to forecast. These investments are based on sparse
and vague information, which is why statistical modelling methods are
not applicable. Therefore, this paper applies qualitative modelling and
qualitative decision tree to support investment decision-making into start-up
companies. A team of experts was asked to describe start-up investment and
12 characteristics (variables) were chosen, e.g., profitability, market potential,
etc. These variables were divided to two sets, variables that are under the
management control – decision variables – and variables that are not under
managerial control – lottery variables. The 12-dimensional models were
developed; a common-sense analysis identifies 18 qualitative equationless
relations and the model generated 20 scenarios. A subset of scenarios
was transferred into a qualitative decision tree. The tree was evaluated to
identify the best possible sequence of decisions using heuristics based on
common-sense reasoning.
Keywords: start-up company; decision-making; decision tree; qualitative;
model; heuristic; common-sense reasoning; investments; decision-making
model; qualitative modelling.