Journal of Environmental Protection, 2012, 3, 262-271
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2012.33033 Published Online March 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/jep)
Health Effects of Climate and Air Pollution in Buenos
Aires: A First Time Series Analysis
*
Rosana Abrutzky
1
, Laura Dawidowski
1,2#
, Patricia Matus
3,4
, Patricia Romero Lankao
5
1
Universidad Nacional de San Martín, Buenos Aires, Argentina;
2
Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Buenos Aires, Argentina;
3
Centro Nacional del Medioambiente, Santiago, Chile;
4
Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile;
5
National Centre for Atmos-
pheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
Email:
#
dawidows@cnea.gov.ar
Received December 16
th
, 2011; revised January 14
th
, 2012; accepted February 16
th
, 2012
ABSTRACT
Background: The impact of urban air pollution and temperature changes over health is a growing concern for epidemi-
ologists all over the world and particularly for developing countries where fewer studies have been performed. Aim:
The main goal of this paper is to analyze the short term effects of changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon mon-
oxide on daily mortality in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Methods: We conducted a time series study focused on three age
groups, gender, and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, with lags up to four days and temporal variables as modi-
fiers. Results: Temperature correlates positively with total mortality for summer months, with a RR = 1.0184 (95%, CI
1.0139, 1.0229) on the same day for each 1˚C increase. In winter this relationship reverses, as 1˚C temperature increase
exhibit a protective effect with a RR = 0.9894 (95%, CI 0.9864, 0.9924) at the 3 day lag. Carbon monoxide correlates
always positively with mortality, with a RR = 1.0369 (95%, CI 1.0206, 1.0534) for each 1 ppm increase, on the previ-
ous day. Conclusions: Climate and pollution parameters measured in Buenos Aires City exhibit a correlation with
health outcomes. The impacts of temperature and carbon monoxide vary with age and gender, being elderly the most
susceptible subgroup. One day after an increase in CO of 1 ppm, about 4% extra deaths can be expected. The correla-
tion found between increases in CO and mortality for greater lags may be ascribed to the role of CO as a chemical
marker of urban air pollution, indicating the co-presence of other pollutants.
Keywords: Health; Air Pollution; Climate Variability; Carbon Monoxide; Epidemiology
1. Introduction
The link between extreme temperatures and air pollution
episodes and health is well documented, particularly for
extreme episodes [1,2]. However, during the last decades,
there has been a growing interest in the chronic or even
acute effects of even low levels of air pollution and small
changes in temperatures in morbidity and mortality [3-5].
Urban populations’ exposure to particulate matter and to
ozone, as well as to nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide,
lead and other metals, has negative impacts on human
health, even at levels lower than those established as se-
cure by international standards [6-11].
The cardiovascular system is the most compromised in
the thermal regulation of the human body, while the res-
piratory system is the first one to receive air pollutants
into the body [12]. This means that susceptible indivi-
duals with chronic pathologies, extreme ages, or metabo-
lic changes due to prescription drug use, are more vul-
nerable to environmental changes [13,14].
The reviewed literature agrees that temperature con-
stitutes an important factor in explaining mortality values,
even in template urban areas [5]. Cold temperatures pro-
duce an important cumulative effect that is lagged in time
with a lag of up to two weeks after the climatic event,
while high temperatures increase mortality for a much
shorter period, generally limited to the same day or the
following [5,15-17].
At the same time, respiratory caused mortality pre-
sents larger lags (between 3 and 6 days) while cardio-
vascular caused deaths occur between the same day of
the climatic event and the two following days [18]. This
is coherent with the underlying biological mechanisms
of disease.
*
This work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the Inter-American
Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) CRN II 2017 which is sup-
ported by the US National Science Foundation (Grant GEO-0452325)
within the framework of the project South American Emissions, Mega-
cities and Climate—Adaptation to the health impacts of air pollution
and climate extremes in Latin American cities (ADAPTE) and support
from the San Martín National University (UNSAM).
#
Corresponding author. Existing scholarship emphasizes the importance of con-
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