Futures 141 (2022) 102991 Available online 8 July 2022 0016-3287/© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. The long cycle perspective on the emerging bio age Lioudmila Chatalova a, * , Andrey Korotayev b a Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-St. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany b National Research University, Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya Ulitsa, room M20-528, Moscow, Russia A R T I C L E INFO Keywords: Bioeconomy Kondratieff Long cycles Production principle Technological convergence ABSTRACT A combined perspective of long economic cycles and very long secular cycles of production principles is proposed to anticipate the major socioeconomic implications of the emerging (bio) technological paradigm. The analysis identifes three distinct shifts that shape and promote so- cioeconomic development in the next fve to six decades: the material shift toward renewable resources, the actual technological shift as a confuence of technological mega-trends, and the control shift toward new knowledge elites and self-regulating systems. The strongest creative and disruptive effects of the new (bio)technological leitmotif are shown to materialize at the overlap of the successive shifts. The results suggest revisiting some priority felds of the current bio- economy and related policies and chart out key challenges beyond the strategic policy horizon of 2050. 1. Introduction Industrial and catching-up countries are about to put their economic models on a more stable, socially equitable and climatically benign footing called the bioeconomy. The directly experienced, life-threatening consequences of undesired economic external- ities—including fnancial bubbles, massive resource overuse, environmental degradation and social insecurity—along with a marked decline in productivity growth and the proft rate have made the biologization of the economy a high priority political task. At the heart of those policies are an increasing use of renewable resources, establishment of a circular economy and development of tech- nologies with transformative potential within and beyond industries (Birner, 2018; EXPH, 2016; IACGB, 2020). The broad societal claims of the transition to a sustainable, biobased economy carry epithets of a paradigm shift, a system-wide transformation, a new era, global deal, or a new social contract (OECD, 2009; UN, 2020). Such technology-driven systemic changes in global socioeconomic organization have strong parallels to the concept of long economic cycles or Kondratieff waves (K-waves). To date, fve long cycles, cutting across periods and regions in regular patterns, have been described. Recent research and world patent data suggest that the ‘global megatrend bioeconomy’ (El-Chichakli et al., 2016) has already given impetus to the 6 th K-wave (Vega-Gonz´ alez, 2017). The development and diffusion of new, game-changing technologies always endow society with a richer stock of knowledge, new materials and energy bases and advanced possibilities. Along with opportunities and direct benefts, it also necessarily creates social conficts, risks and disruptions (Perez, 2004). Assuming that innovations, especially in the area of advanced bio, nano, digital and converging technologies will steer the fortunes of the world for at least the next fve to six decades (Kreiling et al., 2020; Roco & Bainbrige, 2003), the created positive and accompanying side effects might be of a new quality and scale. Understanding the de- terminants and evolving nature of these implications is, therefore, needed for viable policy visions and business strategies. Long-term * Corresponding author. E-mail address: chatalova@iamo.de (L. Chatalova). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Futures journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2022.102991 Received 10 November 2021; Received in revised form 29 March 2022; Accepted 1 July 2022