Journal of
Property
Finance
7,1
50
The long-term inflation-
hedging characteristics of
UK commercial property
George Matysiak
City University Business School, London, UK
Martin Hoesli
University of Geneva, Switzerland
Bryan MacGregor and Nanda Nanthakumaran
University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK
Introduction
This paper reports the results from an investigation of the long-term inflation-
hedging characteristics of UK commercial property. The extent of inflation
hedging is important from a number of perspectives. Where real purchasing
power is to be maintained or where liabilities are linked to the inflation rate,
such as inflation linked pension entitlements, a suitable investment asset is
required. In undertaking an actuarial valuation, the long-term rates of return on
pension fund assets are assumed to exceed the rate of inflation. Consequently,
assets which can deliver a positive real return are desirable investment
holdings. There have been few UK studies investigating the relationship
between inflation and the rates of return on commercial property, particularly
from a long-term perspective. The purpose of the current paper is to address the
question of inflation hedging of commercial property’s total rate of return over
the long term by employing a cointegration analysis approach. The analysis
employed in this paper differs from other work which looks at the
correspondence between returns and inflation in that the returns achieved by
other asset categories are explicitly included in the determination of commercial
property’s rate of return, thereby avoiding potentially biased results.
The paper is organized as follows: the next section outlines briefly previous
work and the following section describes the data. The next section provides an
outline of the concepts and methodology employed in the empirical analysis.
The penultimate section gives details of the empirical results, with the last
section providing concluding remarks and observations.
Previous studies
T he earliest work on property and inflation hedging in the UK was undertaken
by Limmack and Ward (1988), using Fama and Schwert’s (1977) framework.
Inflation is decomposed into two components, expected inflation and
unexpected inflation. Expected inflation is calculated as the yield on three
Journal of Property Finance
Vol. 7 No. 1, 1996, pp. 50-61.
© MCB University Press, 0958-868X