commentary
Quantifying the language dynamics of
bilingual communities
Felicity Meakins
University of Queensland
The diversity of the world’s languages is truly breathtaking but under great threat.
Without intervention, language loss could triple in 40 years, equivalent to one lan-
guage lost per month for the rest of this century (Bromham et al., 2021). There is
an increasing urgency to understand the drivers of language change to stem the
catastrophic rate of language loss globally and to improve language vitality.
In their EPI article, Grenoble and Osipov (2023) are right to note that much of
this change is occurring in bilingual and multilingual settings. In this respect, it is
important to account for the use of all languages in ecologies of change, as Greno-
ble and Osipov suggest, and use quantitative methods to better understand the
vitality of heritage languages in these shif situations. Nonetheless, their methods
continue to assess how well a person speaks their heritage language as opposed to
how they speak this language alongside other languages in the broader language
ecology and what factors drive its use. Their paper also continues a long tradi-
tion of making generalisations based on a small number of linguistic features (e.g.,
general state of play in Variationist Sociolinguistics). Yet studies of single variables
are limited in their capacity to map language change and to generalise across dif-
ferent aspects of language.
BayesVarbrul
1
is a new multivariate analysis of language change which com-
bines Wright–Fisher models and the logic behind Varbrul analyses under a
Bayesian framework. Wright-Fisher models are generally used in population
genetics for describing a serial sampling process of genetic variants from one
timestep to the next. Here Hua (2022) adapts Wright–Fisher models for language
change, mapping the uptake of linguistic variants across diferent generations.
BayesVarbrul models the efect of linguistic and social factors on the uptake of these
variants and also how some social groups use these variants diferently from other
groups. It is designed for datasets with multiple variables and multiple speakers
https://doi.org/./lab..mea
Linguistic Approaches to Bilingualism ISSN - | E‑ISSN -
© John Benjamins Publishing Company
1. The code and the instructions are implemented in R and available at https://github.com
/huaxia1985/BayesVarbrul.