Int. J. Productivity and Quality Management, Vol. 25, No. 3, 2018 305 Copyright © 2018 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. A probabilistic model for predicting service level adherence of application support projects Srijith Sreenivasan* Anna University of Technology, Sardar Patel Road, Guindy, Chennai 600-025, Tamil Nadu, India Email: srijith3@gmail.com *Corresponding author Manimaran Sundaram PSNA College of Engineering and Technology, Kothandaraman Nagar, Dindigul 624-622, Tamil Nadu, India Email: hodmba@psnacet.edu.in Abstract: Application support projects are those which maintain the operations of software in production environment. Service level adherence is a key outcome metric which monitors the contractual compliance of these projects with customers. This paper discusses an approach to develop a prediction model using process factors impacting service level adherence. These factors are derived from the processes and sub-processes having a logical relationship with the outcome. A total of 23 factors were considered initially for modelling, of which six were found to be statistically significant. The model, developed using regression and Monte Carlo simulation, is validated in an actual industrial project to ensure its accuracy. The model can be used in application support projects to arrive at timely decisions for suitable mid-course corrections to control service level adherence. Keywords: application support; software maintenance; service level adherence; SLA; prediction model; regression analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; model validation. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Sreenivasan, S. and Sundaram, M. (2018) ‘A probabilistic model for predicting service level adherence of application support projects’, Int. J. Productivity and Quality Management, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp.305–330. Biographical notes: Srijith Sreenivasan is a Doctoral Research Scholar at the Anna University in Chennai, India and a management consultant with 15 years of experience in engineering management, software quality assurance, application of measurements and high maturity principles. He has consulted several technology organisations in models such as Capability Maturity Model Integration®, Agile and Six Sigma. He holds a Bachelor in Electronics and Communication Engineering from the Manonmaniam Sundaranar University and Master of Business Administration in Marketing and Information Systems from the Mahatma Gandhi University, India. His research interests include agile leadership, quantitative management of engineering practices and analytics.