ORIGINAL PAPER Trends and projections of temperature, precipitation, and snow cover during snow cover-observed period over southwestern Iran Mohammad Zarenistanak & Amit G. Dhorde & R. H. Kripalani & Anargha A. Dhorde Received: 26 July 2013 /Accepted: 18 September 2014 # Springer-Verlag Wien 2014 Abstract In the present study, tendencies in temperature, pre- cipitation, and snow cover area over the southwestern part of Iran have been assessed. The research mainly focused on snow cover-observed period which included the months of December, January, February, March, and April in the area. This research has been divided into two parts. First part consists of an analysis of the trends in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover area during the above months. Trends in these parameters were tested by linear regression, and significance was determined by t test. Mann-Kendall rank test (MK test) was also employed to confirm the results of linear regression. Sequential Mann- Kendall test (SQ-MK test) was applied for change point detec- tion in the series. For snow cover analysis, remote sensing images from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite with advanced very high res- olution radiometer (AVHRR) sensor for the period 1987–2007 were used. The second part of the research involved future projections based on four models under B1 and A1B emission scenarios. The models used were centre national de recherches meteorologiques (CNRM), European Center Hamburg model (ECHAM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROCH) and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMOC) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4. The analysis of temperature trends re- vealed a significant increase during February and April. Temperature projections showed that temperature may increase between 1.12 to 7.87 °C by 2100 in the study area. The results of precipitation series indicated that majority of the stations registered insignificant trends during the twentieth century. However, precipitation may decrease according to most of the models under both scenarios, but the decrease may not be large, except according to MIROCH model. The results of trend analysis of snow cover area indicated that no significant trends were detected by any statistical tests at 95 % confidence level during the twentieth century. Snow cover projection showed that snow cover area may decrease as indicated by all the models under both scenarios at the end of twenty-first century consistent with the projected increase in temperature. 1 Introduction Temperature and precipitation are two widely measured cli- matic parameters, and variation in their long-term behavior is one of the significant indicators of climate change. Another area of interest for climatologists is detecting changes in snow cover area. Monitoring and projecting snow cover area are important for several reasons; however most importantly, it is critical for supply of water resources in southwestern Iran. The southwestern part of Iran is an important region in view of surface water storage. Any significant trend in snow cover area is important for policy makers, water resource manage- ment, and agriculture in Iran. Hence, it becomes imperative to examine projection in snow cover area. Projections of snow cover may have uncertainties but are necessary in order to study risks to future water resources. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) published in 2007 M. Zarenistanak Department of Geography, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran A. G. Dhorde (*) Department of Geography, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune 411007, India e-mail: amitdhorde@unipune.ac.in R. H. Kripalani Centre for Advanced Training, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008, India A. A. Dhorde Department of Geography, Nowrosjee Wadia College (affiliated to Savitribai Phule Pune University), Pune 411001, India Theor Appl Climatol DOI 10.1007/s00704-014-1287-8