Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Marine Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/marpol Path discussion for offshore wind in Portugal up to 2030 Mário Vieira a , Elsa Henriques a , Miguel Amaral b , Nuno Arantes-Oliveira b , Luís Reis a, ⁎ a IDMEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais no. 1, 1049 Lisbon, Portugal b IN+, Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais no. 1, 1049 Lisbon, Portugal ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Offshore wind Innovation system Renewable implementation Strategic path ABSTRACT Offshore wind is, nowadays, an emerging renewable source in Europe, with strong capacity potential due to the generalized high wind-levels at the open sea. Because solutions for this wind energy extraction are complex, its implementation differs from other renewable energy technologies, as it requires synergies between different industries, agents and actors. Portugal's offshore wind resources have been the home for two different EU funded projects on the deployment of demonstration prototypes for innovative foundation solutions and further projects are currently on the pipeline. However, Portugal has ocean conditions that differ from those of the Northern Seas, raising considerably different technological challenges. The present authors propose a strategic path that better fits the Portuguese socio-economic environment and discuss the consequent opportunities, challenges and bottlenecks that need to be addressed for that specific path. A thorough bibliographic review was made to the current literature and in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted to relevant actors of the field. The suggested path may generate considerable investment on new capacity additions and economic benefits for the industry's added value, as well as more than 20,000 jobs.year by 2030. 1. Introduction The European Union (EU) has defined a 20% global quota for re- newable energy sources by 2020 and 32.5% by 2030 amongst the ac- cumulated energy mixes of its members [1,2]. Still, the current Eur- opean renewable capacity will not guarantee the achievement of these goals, meaning that further capacity needs to be installed. In between this installed capacity, Europe has strongly focused on wind expansion over the last years, with already 168 GW installed by the end of 2017, more than the current nuclear capacity [3,4]. Onshore wind is now, in fact, commercially competitive against fossil fuel solutions [5]. Fur- thermore, if environmental, health, and other factors are considered, it can actually be considered cheaper [6]. Offshore exploration is the next natural step of this wind power development, since Europe has at its disposal a large marine space with strong wind potential. The installed capacity at the end of 2017 was rated at 15.8 GW [7], with 34 GW predicted by 2020, 132 GW by 2030 and 460 GW by 2050 [8]. In 2017 alone, 3148 MW were installed and 7.5 billion € worth in financing were granted for new offshore wind farms (OWF) [7]. Still, almost all this capacity is confined to the northern European seas, as the winds are strong and sea levels are shallow. For the Atlantic Ocean, 8–22 GW are predicted till 2030 [9]. This is mostly explained by the technical challenges imposed by the Atlantic Ocean, especially due to higher depths, bigger distances to shore and harsh sea conditions. In fact, and for different depths, different solutions for turbine towers installation have arisen. For low depths, the monopile solution is the most afford- able, accounting for 81% of the total turbines installed in Europe [10]. Still, for bigger depths (as seen in Fig. 1), the monopile application becomes impractical as its cost surpasses the cost of other solutions, namely jacket, gravity-based or floating structures [11–13]. However, these solutions for bigger depths cannot compete, yet, within the energy market - even considering tariff support - due to their low Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) [8]. Offshore wind implementation may be achieved through the pro- motion of governmental support, by the generation of fiscal and quota- based incentives, through the generation of expert manpower and also through the allocation of capital for investment [8,14]. A stable legis- lative framework, simplified licensing procedures and the design of self- installing systems to minimize installation processes and logistics should also be attained [14]. Furthermore, directives towards renew- able energy implementation and energy transition paradigm should be further defined and fulfilled at the European level [6]. Thus, a robust governance system is fundamental for new technology implementation, since volatility on policies may hamper the investors’ appetite and https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.11.021 Received 23 May 2018; Received in revised form 12 November 2018; Accepted 12 November 2018 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: mario.vieira@ist.utl.pt (M. Vieira), elsa.h@ist.utl.pt (E. Henriques), miguel.amaral@ist.utl.pt (M. Amaral), nuno.arantes@mitportugal.org (N. Arantes-Oliveira), luis.g.reis@ist.utl.pt (L. Reis). Marine Policy xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx 0308-597X/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Please cite this article as: Vieira, M., Marine Policy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.11.021