Wildfires and their impact on the water supply of a large neotropical metropolis: A simulation approach Evandro Luis Rodrigues ⁎, Claudia Maria Jacobi, José Eugênio Côrtes Figueira Departamento de Biologia Geral, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antonio Carlos 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil HIGHLIGHTS • Water balance response to wildfires combining runoff and infiltration • SWAT model fed with historical hydroclimatic series (15 years) • Increasing burned areas results in less water storage and higher flood risk • Losses in groundwater recharge due to reduced infiltration and increased runoff GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT abstract article info Article history: Received 8 May 2018 Received in revised form 21 September 2018 Accepted 22 September 2018 Available online 23 September 2018 Editor: Ralf Ludwig Hydrological models are powerful tools to simulate the behavior of the water cycle in terrestrial systems and their water interface, including modifications resulting from anthropic activities. In such environments the water stocks depend heavily on the vegetation cover and the ecosystem services derived from it, as part of the interaction soil-plant-topography. Wildfires are disturbances capable of breaking the foundations of these deli- cate systems. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the effects of vegetation fires on drainage basins, on the water supply of one of the largest Brazilian urban agglomerations. The model was fed and calibrated with historical hydroclimatic series (calibration January 2001–December 2008, validation Jan- uary 2009–December 2015). The adjusted model allows to predict the impacts of fire extension on infiltration and runoff, a valuable information for land management, aiming at protecting aquifer recharge. The model pre- dicts a scenario of large range fluctuations characterized by pulsed floods in the rainy season and drought in the dry season. The loss of protective vegetation cover due to fire reduces infiltration and increases runoff. This com- promises groundwater recharge, leading to high deficits in groundwater storage and reducing the baseline flow of headsprings. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Environmental services Native vegetation SWAT Water resources Wildfires Water balance 1. Introduction In most ecosystems, plant cover assumes many relevant roles associ- ated with watersheds health. The protection given by the vegetation im- proves soil moisture, infiltration rates, rainwater percolation and flow rate, among the most important (Pekarova et al., 2009). These mecha- nisms are indispensable for the maintenance and storage of water in Science of the Total Environment 651 (2019) 1261–1271 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: evandromaster@gmail.com (E.L. Rodrigues), jacobi@icb.ufmg.br (C.M. Jacobi), cortes@icb.ufmg.br (J.E.C. Figueira). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.289 0048-9697/© 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Science of the Total Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv