Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Agricultural Systems journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments María Blanco a,⁎ , Fabien Ramos b , Benjamin Van Doorslaer c , Pilar Martínez a , Davide Fumagalli b , Andrej Ceglar b , Francisco J. Fernández a a Technical University of Madrid, Spain b Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), Italy c Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Joint Research Centre (JRC), Spain ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Climate change Crop productivity Agrifood system Bio-economic modelling Carbon fertilization effects ABSTRACT The biophysical and economic consequences of climate change for agriculture are surrounded by uncertainties. The evaluation of climate change impacts on global and regional agriculture has been studied at length. In most cases, however, global and regional impacts are examined separately. Here we present a regionalized assessment – for the 2030 time horizon – covering the whole European Union while accounting for market feedback through international markets. To account for uncertainty on climate effects, we defined several simulation scenarios that differ as to climate projections and assumptions on the degree of carbon fertilization. Biophysical simulations show that crop productivity effects are largely determined by the degree of carbon fertilization, leading to decreased productivity in the absence of carbon fertilization and increased productivity otherwise. The mag- nitude of those effects differs across regions and crops, with maize being one of the most negatively affected in the EU. Economic simulations show that, while, on the whole, crop price effects attenuate the global impacts of climate change, aggregate results conceal significant regional disparities and their related trade adjustment. These results suggest that a multi-scale perspective is helpful for assessing climate change impacts on agriculture, as it will improve understanding of how regional and global agrifood markets respond to climate change and how these responses interact with each other. 1. Introduction Recent developments in agricultural and food prices are leading to growing concerns about the evolution of agricultural markets in the coming years (Baffes and Haniotis, 2016). Looking forward, a number of studies project price developments above pre-2007 trends (OECD- FAO, 2015). The key drivers of change that explain the medium-term evolution of agrifood systems can be split into socio-economic drivers (i.e. population growth, income growth, dietary patterns) and en- vironmental drivers (i.e. climate change, pressure on natural resources). Socio-economic drivers have been studied at length (Araujo-Enciso et al., 2016; Chavas et al., 2014; Swinnen and Squicciarini, 2012). Among environmental drivers, climate change is recognized as one of the most influential factors of agrifood market developments in the medium and long run (Godfray et al., 2010; Nelson et al., 2014a; Von Lampe et al., 2014). Understanding how climate change will shape future agrifood markets is crucial to address future food security challenges. There is a growing body of evidence about the effects of climate change on agriculture, with a clear predominance of studies on bio- physical effects (IPCC, 2014), which show that the size and direction of climate impacts on crop yields differ across regions depending on both natural and anthropogenic conditions (Parry et al., 2004; Rosenzweig et al., 2014; Tubiello and Fischer, 2007). Nonetheless, an assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires not only the identification of regional yield changes but also the analysis of induced impacts on crop production and prices (Baldos and Hertel, 2013; Fernández and Blanco, 2015). Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food production and prices include the seminal works of Tobey et al. (1992) and Reilly et al. (1994). They showed that yield changes would be counterbalanced by interregional adjustments in production and consumption and corresponding trade flows. Many global assessments corroborate these early findings that market effects constitute an important adjustment mechanism for the impacts of http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.013 Received 28 April 2016; Received in revised form 22 May 2017; Accepted 26 May 2017 ⁎ Corresponding author at: Department of Agricultural Economics, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Avda Complutense 3, 28040 Madrid, Spain. E-mail addresses: maria.blanco@upm.es (M. Blanco), fabien.ramos@ec.europa.eu (F. Ramos), benjamin.van-doorslaer@ec.europa.eu (B. Van Doorslaer), mpilar.martinez@upm.es (P. Martínez), davide.fumagalli@ext.jrc.ec.europa.eu (D. Fumagalli), andrej.ceglar@jrc.ec.europa.eu (A. Ceglar), franjo.fernandez@gmail.com (F.J. Fernández). Agricultural Systems 156 (2017) 52–66 0308-521X/ © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. MARK