The impact on food security and future adaptation under climate variation: a case study of Taiwan’ s agriculture and fisheries Ching-Hsien Ho 1,2 & Huu-Sheng Lur 3 & Ming-Hwi Yao 4 & Fang-Ching Liao 4 & Ying-Ting Lin 3 & Nobuyuki Yagi 2 & Hsueh-Jung Lu 1,5 Received: 31 August 2016 / Accepted: 9 March 2017 # Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017 Abstract According to Food and Agriculture Organization and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, climate change will lead to a severe food-supply problem. In the future, food production will continually decrease because of aggravated effects of climate change, causing food production to continually decrease. Food production will be unable to satisfy the demand of the global population, leading to a food-security crisis. As the world population continues to increase, the shortage of food will become increasingly severe, particularly for those located in “climate impact hotspots” of tropical, subtropical, small-island countries, and countries that are dependent on imports to meet domestic demand such as Taiwan. Numerous Taiwanese studies have suggested that agricultural and fishery productivity has declined because of climate variation, which may cause changes and instability in food quantity and quality, and increase deficiency and uncertainty in the food supply. Therefore, to discuss the risks posed by climate change to the stability of food supply and demand, this paper, taking Taiwan as a case, explored the impact of climate variation on food security and future adaptation strategies. TaiCCAT’ s supportive system for decision-making (TSSDA) was adopted here to assess and analyze the Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change DOI 10.1007/s11027-017-9742-3 * Hsueh-Jung Lu hjlu@ntou.edu.tw 1 Department of Environmental Biology and Fisheries Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, No. 2, Beining Rd., Jhongjheng District, Keelung City 202 Taiwan, Republic of China 2 Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Tokyo University, Japan, 7-3-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan 3 Department of Agronomy, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd, Taipei 10617 Taiwan, Republic of China 4 Taiwan Agricultural Research Institute, Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, No. 189, Zhongzheng Rd., Wufeng Dist, Taichung City 41362 Taiwan, Republic of China 5 Center of Excellence for the Oceans, National Taiwan Ocean University, No. 2, Beining Rd., Jhongjheng District, Keelung City 202 Taiwan, Republic of China