Climate Services 23 (2021) 100242 Available online 20 July 2021 2405-8807/© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Determinants of pastoralists’ use of indigenous knowledge and scientifc forecasts in Rwenzori region, Western Uganda Michael Robert Nkuba a, * , Raban Chanda a , Gagoitseope Mmopelwa a , Margaret Najjingo Mangheni b , David. Lesolle a , Akintayo Adedoyin c , Godfrey Mujuni d a Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Botswana, Botswana b Department of Extension and Innovation Studies, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Makerere University, Uganda c Department of Physics, University of Botswana, Botswana d Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Uganda A R T I C L E INFO Keywords: Scientifc forecasts Indigenous knowledge forecasts Climate information Onset and cessation Pastoralists Uganda ABSTRACT This paper discusses climate information use among pastoralists. This study investigated what factors infuence pastoralists’ use of scientifc forecasts (SF) and indigenous forecasts (IF). A household survey of 269 respondents was conducted in the Rwenzori region in Western Uganda. The results show that pastoralists who received scientifc forecasts in local languages were more likely to use both SF and IF. Number of local cattle increased the likelihood using of both SF and IF, while owning lactating cows and farm size increased the likelihood of using IF only. Confdence in climate services can be increased by having regular effective dialogues with pastoralists and enhancing capacity among stakeholders such as non-governmental organisations and pastoralists’ organisations. Integrating indigenous forecasts into national meteorological systems should be explored. Practical implications • Access to climate information is essential for pastoralists to adapt effectively to a changing climate. It is now widely acknowledged that pastoralists use both indigenous and scien- tifc forecasts in their decision-making for rangeland use. The present study has identifed a multiplicity of factors infuencing pastoralists’ use of the two types of forecast in the Rwenzori region of Uganda. Below we highlight the key factors and cor- responding policy and/or management implications: • First is the language in which the forecasts are disseminated to pastoralists. Scientifc forecasts (SFs) communicated in local languages are more likely to be used. This is an obvious fnding, but worth underlining, particularly for areas like the Rwenzori with low literacy levels. Second is the familiarity with and local effcacy of the forecasts. The study established that only one pastoralist relied solely on SFs. The majority of the pastoralists used either indigenous knowledge forecasts (IFs) in combina- tion with SFs (59%) or IFs only (41%). This suggests that unless SFs complement trusted and familiar IFs, they will not be used by the pastoralists. IFs have local specifcity (the climate ‘sci- ence’ of the area), while SFs often relate to wider areal extents and in a very probabilistic way. There is therefore virtue in promoting both types of forecasts, especially in regions like the study area with very sparse meteorological station coverage. Third is the apparent confdence in the forecasts of the elderly (with longer memory time) and in the collective forecasting wisdom residing in groupings of pastoralists. This implies a need to tap the forecasting wisdom of the elderly pastoralists and pastoralists as a collective, and to have such wisdom archived, verifed against, or corroborated by, the SF database. Fourth is the signifcant role of radio in the dissemination of SFs in local languages. Thus, to promote use of forecasts, there is need to enhance rural radio networks to disseminate not only SFs but also IFs of trusted elders and pastoralist organisations. Finally, there are scale effects on use of forecasts as shown by number of livestock and use of both IFs and SFs suggesting that having large ruminants increase use of early warning information and awareness of climate change. • Social capital can be enhanced by strengthening local in- stitutions such as pastoralist groups to foster cooperation in risk- sharing regarding pasture and water resources. Communal management of rangelands ensures survival of livestock during * Corresponding author at: Department of Environmental sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Botswana, 4775 Notwane Road, Private Bag 00704, Gaborone, Botswana. E-mail address: mnkuba@gmail.com (M.R. Nkuba). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Climate Services journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cliser https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100242 Received 12 August 2020; Received in revised form 20 May 2021; Accepted 6 July 2021