We thank the editor and referee for their valuable comments and suggestions. We also thank Professor Lutz
Kilian for providing us the program code to compute the robust P-values.
*Correspondence author, Department of Finance and Real Estate, Colorado State University, Fort Collins,
CO. Tel: (970) 491-2356, Fax: (970) 491-7665, e-mail: hong.miao@colostate.edu
■ Arjun Chatrath is a Professor of Finance at the University of Portland’s Pamplin School of
Business, Portland, Oregon.
■ Hong Miao is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Finance and Real Estate, Colorado
State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.
■ Sanjay Ramchander is an Associate Professor at the Department of Finance and Real Estate,
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.
© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/fut.20525
DOES THE PRICE OF CRUDE
OIL RESPOND TO
MACROECONOMIC NEWS?
ARJUN CHATRATH
HONG MIAO*
SANJAY RAMCHANDER
In a recent study, Kilian L. and Vega C. (2011) indicate that the daily price of
crude oil is mostly unresponsive to macroeconomic news, and at times exhibits
response-coefficients that are counterintuitive. The authors conclude that the
price of crude oil is predetermined to macro aggregates, and hence determined in
a flow demand/supply framework. We make the argument that inferences on
commodity price determination should be drawn from news responses only after
the standard tests are subject to inventory (or stock) controls. Using daily and
intraday price data and proxies for inventory levels, we reexamine the responsive-
ness of crude prices to macroeconomic news. Our evidence suggests a very limit-
ed role for stock levels in the responsiveness of crude oil. The prior conclusion
that crude oil is priced primarily in a flow-environment is supported by our data.
© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:536–559, 2012
The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 32, No. 6, 536–559 (2012)
Published online June 2, 2011 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com)
Received January 2011; Accepted February 2011