https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756719862115
World Futures Review
2019, Vol. 11(4) 331–350
© The Author(s) 2019
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DOI: 10.1177/1946756719862115
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Article
Introduction
We live in deep change times. Digital transfor-
mation, characterized as “Internet of Things”
(IoT), is breaking long-established business
models, which in turn cause disquiet about the
future. What is coming ahead and at what
speed? Are companies and the own society
862115WFR XX X 10.1177/1946756719862115World Futures ReviewPanizzon and Barcellos
research-article 2019
1
University of Caxias do Sul, Brazil
Corresponding Author:
Mateus Panizzon, Graduate Program in Industrial
Engineering, Foresight Studies Center, University of
Caxias do Sul, Rua Francisco Getúlio Vargas, 1130,
Caxias do Sul, RS 95070-560, Brazil.
Email: mpanizzo@ucs.br
A Three-Level Evaluation
Process of Cultural Readiness
for Strategic Foresight Projects
Mateus Panizzon
1
and Paulo Fernando Pinto Barcellos
1
Abstract
A critical issue in Strategic Foresight approaches is the expected effect on the organizational
and individual behavior change, as understanding, mapping, and influencing the desired future is
a function of the group’s effort to adopt a more disruptive or conservative scenario in a long-
term thinking and planning context. As a learning process, a Strategic Foresight experience,
due to the nature of new knowledge co-creation, can foster mindset changes. However, at
the same time, a Foresight project deals with the existing group assumptions due to national
and organizational cultures, which can be more (or less) oriented to long-term or disruptive
thinking, as well as the established managerial mentality about the future orientation in strategic
thinking. These cultural assumptions can exert positive or negative influence in a Foresight
mindset, and should be assessed and understood previously, as the overall cultural readiness
can affect the performance of a Foresight project in general. Also, the analysis of the cultural
aspect as an evaluation process can generate new learning, when compared a pre-assessment
with a post-assessment. Thus, the posed question is, “How to assess cultural dimensions before
and after Foresight projects?” Based on Hofstede National Cultural model, Cameron and Quinn
Competing Values model, and Amsteus Managerial Foresight model, this article proposes to
discuss the applicability of a three-level (national, organizational, and individual) evaluation
process to assess the cultural environment readiness for Strategic Foresight projects and the
influence of a Foresight project on participants’ perception of the future through a two-phase
approach. This research contributes to Strategic Foresight methods by proposing a research
agenda about the cultural perspective in Foresight assessment. Managerial contributions about
the pre-assessment interpretations of the proposed three-level process to better understand the
cultural profile of the participant group are also discussed in a hypothetical scenario application.
Keywords
strategic foresight, culture and organizational behavior, culture evaluation models