Research Article
Intraday Price Discovery between Spot and Futures Markets of
NIFTY 50: An Empirical Study during the Times of COVID-19
Mohammed Arshad Khan ,
1
Md. Mobashshir Hussain ,
2
Asif Pervez,
3
Mohd Atif ,
2
Rohit Bansal,
4
and Hamad A. Alhumoudi
1
1
Department of Accountancy, College of Administration and Financial Science, Saudi Electronic University,
Riyadh 11673, Saudi Arabia
2
Department of Commerce and Business Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India
3
Centre for Distance and Online Education, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India
4
Department of Management Studies, Vaish College of Engineering, Rohtak, India
Correspondence should be addressed to Mohammed Arshad Khan; m.akhan@seu.edu.sa
Received 24 January 2022; Revised 8 June 2022; Accepted 20 June 2022; Published 4 August 2022
Academic Editor: Miaochao Chen
Copyright © 2022 Mohammed Arshad Khan et al. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons
Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is
properly cited.
e current study investigates the intraday dynamics of futures and spot markets in India. By analyzing one-minute data of Nifty
50 and the associated futures index, the study finds that both the markets are cointegrated. e results of the VECM reveal that any
disequilibrium between the spot and futures market is restored by the spot market. Granger causality tests reveal that the spot and
futures markets have a bidirectional causal relationship. Common factor weights and Hasbrouck’s information share (IS) reveal
the greater role of the futures market in price discovery. Gonzalo and Granger’s common factor model indicates that the
permanent factor is made up of futures series only. Using the BEK-GARCH model, we found two-way volatility spillovers between
the spot and futures markets. e futures market is found to have a greater impact in terms of volatility spillovers also. e findings
of our research are relevant to investors, money managers, traders, and policymakers.
1. Introduction
One of the major constituents of the derivatives market is the
futures market. Futures markets’ two primary roles are price
discovery and risk management [1]. ese two reasons have
sparked a lot of research on the link between these two
markets [2, 3]. A vibrant futures market also helps improve
the efficiency of the underlying spot market [4]. e im-
portance of the index futures market has been studied ex-
tensively in developed countries, with the majority of studies
focusing on the United States [5]. Firstly, spot-futures re-
lation was investigated in the context of cointegration or
associated error correction [6–11]. Secondly, the lead-lag
relationship was investigated between the spot index market
and index futures market. e index futures market is mostly
found to lead the spot index market and plays the leading
role in price discovery in most developed countries [8, 9, 12].
Some studies also reported a bidirectional relationship be-
tween spot and futures markets [13, 14]. It is noteworthy that
even if the link between the spot and futures market is
bidirectional, the link from futures to spot markets is
stronger [6, 7, 9, 12, 15–20].
While the dominant role of the futures market is re-
ported from the developed markets, the evidence from the
emerging markets is mixed [21]. Chiang and Fong [22]
reported that the Hang Seng index futures dominate the spot
index returns. Zhong et al. [23] showed that the stock index
futures market of Mexico had a leading role in the price
discovery [24]. ey contend that the futures markets have a
smaller advantage over the spot markets in other countries
than they do in the United States [13, 25, 26].
e evidence regarding the price discovery is very in-
teresting in India. While Debasish [27] and Pati and Rajib
[28] report the leading role of the futures market, Pradhan
Hindawi
Journal of Mathematics
Volume 2022, Article ID 2164974, 9 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2164974