ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER Systems Dynamics Modeling of Pandemic Influenza for Strategic Policy Development: a Simulation-Based Analysis of the COVID-19 Case Charlle Sy 1,2 & Phoebe Mae Ching 3 & Jayne Lois San Juan 1,2 & Ezekiel Bernardo 1 & Angelimarie Miguel 1 & Andres Philip Mayol 2,4 & Alvin Culaba 2,4 & Aristotle Ubando 2,4 & Jose Edgar Mutuc 1,2 Received: 16 September 2020 /Revised: 27 December 2020 /Accepted: 1 January 2021 # The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a truly wicked problem which has remained a stubborn issue plaguing multiple countries worldwide. The continuously increasing number of infections and deaths has driven several countries to implement control and response strategies including community lockdowns, physical distancing, and travel bans with different levels of success. However, a disease outbreak and the corresponding policies can cause disastrous economic consequences due to business closures and risk minimization behaviors. This paper develops a system dynamics framework of a disease outbreak system covering various policies to evaluate their effectiveness in mitigating transmission and the resulting economic burden. The system dynamics modeling approach captures the relationships, feedbacks, and delays in such a system, revealing mean- ingful insights on the dynamics of several response strategies. Keywords COVID-19 . Disease outbreak . Response strategies . Policy recommendation . Impact assessment Introduction The outbreak of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has se- verely affected several countries. The respective healthcare sectors have become overburdened with demands for testing, care and treatment. Aside from a strain in their capacity, healthcare workers are also reported to have increased preva- lence of mental health disorders, typically correlated to healthcare workers who have frequent direct contact with in- fected patients, as well as access to personal protective equip- ment (Pappa et al. 2020). This is supported by a study per- formed by Zhang et al. (2020) on healthcare staff in Iran de- tailing declining physical and mental healths and increasing anxiety, depression, and distress. Mounting anxieties on the availability of supplies have also resulted in civil unrest and individual trauma (Webster et al. 2020). Moreover, the ex- tended closure of establishments and impairment of business operations will have lasting negative impact on various as- pects of the economy (Hart and Halden 2020). Many busi- nesses are negatively hit by this crisis and are trying to devise strategic responses to minimize the damage, as well as quick- en their recovery (Wenzel et al. 2020). The gravity of these problems can be minimized through policy management. The mode, duration, and level of enforcement of policies employed to handle can determine the trend of infection, as well as how long a country suffers from the consequences following the outbreak. As a disease, the symptoms of coronavirus include respirato- ry ailments, fever, and fatigue. It is related to two viruses which resulted in nationwide outbreaks in the past, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respi- ratory syndrome (MERS) (Yang et al. 2020b). From some This article is part of the Topical Collection on COVID-19: optimization strategies to combat pandemic. * Charlle Sy charlle.sy@dlsu.edu.ph 1 Industrial Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922 Manila, Philippines 2 Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922 Manila, Philippines 3 Department of Industrial Engineering and Decision Analytics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong 4 Mechanical Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922 Manila, Philippines https://doi.org/10.1007/s41660-021-00156-9 / Published online: 28 January 2021 Process Integration and Optimization for Sustainability (2021) 5:461–474