Mathematical Theory and Modeling www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-5804 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0522 (Online) Vol.10, No.4, 2020 21 Modelling the Spread of COVID-19 with Impact of Awareness and Medical Assistance Grace O. Agaba Department of Mathematics/Computer Science, Benue State University, Makurdi, Nigeria E-mail: omecheagaba@gmail.com Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 originated from Wuhan, China and spread rapidly across the globe. The virus was first identified in Nigeria on 27 th February, 2020 and announced by the Minister of Health on 28 th February, 2020 through a press briefing. As at 4 th May, 2020, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control recorded a total of 2,802 confirmed cases of COVID-19 individuals with 93 fatalities. Available data from inception to 4 th May, 2020 were extracted from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) situation reports and used to trace the epidemic curves of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Furthermore, the disease transmission rate and the basic reproduction number were estimated by using an SEIHR epidemic model with the influence of awareness and medical assistance through MATLAB application. The results of the numerical evaluation of the model indicated that awareness dissemination aid in reducing the spread of COVID-19 and medical assistance has significant impact. The disease transmission rate and the basic reproduction number were estimated as and respectively. While the analysis predicted that the epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Nigeria will occur approximately 216 days from the inception of NCDC situation report. The overall outcome of the analysis advocates for more awareness campaign, accessible medical assistance and proper enforcement of adherence to strict measures for the control and possibly elimination of COVID-19. Keywords: COVID-19, Nigeria, Model, Basic reproduction number, Epidemic peak 1. Introduction The emergence of a new pneumonic plague has thrown the entire world into a state of uncertainty and fear of what the future holds. The disease which originated from animals to humans and thereafter transmitted from human-to-human has it source connected to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China (Arcede et al., 2020; Chen et al., 2020; Chen et al., 2020a; Lin et al., 2020; Traini et al., 2020). Coronavirus disease was first confirmed in December, 2019 in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province of China and has spread rapidly within a short period from Wuhan to other Provinces of China and across the globe (Kuniya, 2020; Li et al., 2020; Meng and Jingtao, 2020; Rocklöv et al., 2020; Sahafizadeh and Sartoli, 2020; Tang et al., 2020; Tian et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020). The first public announcement was made on 12 th December, 2019 in China by Wuhan Municipal Health Commission (WMHC) as a result of their initial cases. Consequently, the World Health Organization (WHO) named the coronavirus disease as 2019-nCoV on 10 th January, 2020 (Chen et al., 2020a; Tang et al., 2020; Tian et al., 2020) and it was later renamed as COVID-19 on 11 th February, 2020 (Choi and Moran, 2020; Kuniya, 2020; Tian, et al., 2020; Wang, et al., 2020). In addition, it was declared as pandemic by the WHO as a result of the rapid global spread of the infectious disease on 11 th March, 2020 (Traini et al., 2020). According to Arcede et al. (2020), Chen et al. (2020) and Tang et al. (2020), the pneumonic coronavirus belong to the coronaviridae family whose members include the known SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), among other respiratory diseases and they have high record of human fatalities. Arcede et al. (2020) state that the number of human deaths recorded from COVID-19 infection is more than the total number of lives claimed by all its predecessors put together. Currently, there is no universal approved vaccine for the cure or treatment of COVID-19 patients (Arcede et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020). Hence, most countries are employing the basic preventive measures recommended by WHO, such as awareness campaign for social distancing, washing of hands with soap under running water or the use of hand sanitizers, stay at home, quarantine and isolation, to control the spread of the disease. COVID-19 is expected to peak within 14 days under the most restrictive measures while its incubation period is about 7 days (Tang et al., 2020). Consequently, exposed individuals are in most cases expected to be quarantine for 14 days. Rocklöv et al. (2020) advocated that early response against the spread of the coronavirus is a powerful force in curtaining the spread of the disease. They were of the opinion that if implemented many people