Urban transformation in the National Capital Territory of Delhi, India: The emergence and growth of slums? Manisha Jain a, * ,J € org Knieling b , Hannes Taubenb € ock c a HafenCity University Hamburg, Institute for Urban Planning and Regional Development, Großer Grasbrook 9, 20457 Hamburg, Germany b HafenCity University Hamburg, Institute for Urban Planning and Regional Development, Überseeallee 16, 20457 Hamburg, Germany c Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Earth Observation Center, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Wessling, Germany article info Article history: Received 29 October 2014 Received in revised form 2 March 2015 Accepted 26 March 2015 Available online Keywords: South Asia Urban transformation Slums Municipal boundaries Essential services Census data Urban remote sensing abstract In the 20th and 21st centuries, the world has experienced rapid urbanization and slum proliferation. Slum residents form a significant portion of urban populations and contribute to the development of cities. However, due to their highly concentrated consumption and waste production patterns, slums endure and exacerbate, among other things, environmental degradation. To date, our understanding of slums in Indian cities has been primarily based on census data and evidence from remote sensing images. These data do not yet provide spatial slum dynamics over time and are limited to static and statistical representation. In addition to the obsolescence of spatial data, the non-availability of consistent socio- economic data leads to data integration problems. Therefore, new approaches that consider the scar- city of data and the choice of analytical techniques are needed; planners without advanced technical training should also be able to easily apply these approaches. This study provides a comprehensive approach to examine the urban transformation of the National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCT-Delhi), India, from 1971 to 2011. Combining data from multi-temporal remote sensing images, census population statistics, slum enumeration and the provision of essential services, these investigations reveal a pre- viously undocumented rapid increase in built-up areas outside municipal boundaries. The findings confirm the spatial shift of slums from the city center towards the periphery. The analysis provides a revealing insight: the emergence and growth of slums are outcomes of the prevailing urban planning environment, the limited success of adopted policies and the government's inability to foster growth. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction: urban growth and sustainability in India In the 20th and 21st centuries, the world has experienced rapid urbanization and slum proliferation (e.g., Davis, 2007). Only 13% of the world's population lived in urban areas during industrialization in 1900 (UN, 2012), and most of those people lived in slum settle- ments. By 2050, the global urban population is projected to in- crease to 6.3 billion, and Indian urban areas will contribute 0.9 billion to that number (UN, 2012). The global urban slum popula- tion is projected to increase by 27 million annually from 2000 to 2020 (UN-Habitat, 2002a). In India, 104 million people will live in urban slums by 2017 (Dash, 2013), and most of this increase will occur in small cities (Bihardays, 2013), which are under-resourced and under-serviced with managerial and planning capabilities that are experiencing increasing stress (UNEPA, 2007). Against the background of predicted growth, scarce resources, and limited institutional capacity to respond to such growth, this study provides an approach to study the spatial urban trans- formation in the context of the emergence and growth of slums in South Asian cities. However, this study's purpose is not to model the slums but to capture spatial urban transformation. This research attempts to provide insights into how the shifting of slums and municipal boundaries affects the process of including and excluding slums in the city's development. More specifically, what role urban planning and the judiciary play in the shifting of the slums? How do adopted policies influence the slums' emergence and growth? Answering these questions will contribute to a better understanding of slum dynamics. Since the 16th century, slums have been the only large-scale, low-income housing solution (UN-Habitat, 2003). Slums are set- tlements where the poor live who contribute in building cities, and the presence of these settlements implies that the city in which they are located is economically successful (Glaeser, Kahn, & * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: manisha.jain@hcu-hamburg.de (M. Jain), joerg.knieling@hcu- hamburg.de (J. Knieling), hannes.taubenboeck@dlr.de (H. Taubenb€ ock). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Habitat International journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/habitatint http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.03.020 0197-3975/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Habitat International 48 (2015) 87e96