Int. J. Technology Management, Vol. 40, Nos. 1/2/3, 2007 87 Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. Predicting citations to biotechnology patents based on the information from the patent documents Bou-Wen Lin* Institute of Technology Management, National Tsing Hua University, 101, Sec. 2, Kuan-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan, ROC Fax: +886-3574-5310 E-mail: bwlin@mx.nthu.edu.tw *Corresponding author Chung-Jen Chen and Hsueh-Liang Wu Department of Business Administration, National Cheng Kung University, 1, Ta-Hsueh Road, Tainan, Taiwan, ROC Fax: +886-209-0235 E-mail: chungjen@mail.ncku.edu.tw E-mail: wuhl@mail.ncku.edu.tw Abstract: The purpose of this study is to develop a simple and robust model for predicting citations to a patent based on the information from the front page of the patent documents. The number of citations received is frequently used as an indicator of the value and importance of a patent. However, it takes a long time for a patent to accumulate a large number of citations from later patents. Highly cited patents may well be very old and accordingly may not represent cutting-edge technology. If we can predict the pattern of citations to a patent right after it is granted, the tradability of patents will be greatly enhanced. This paper provides a simple regression model to predict citations to biotechnology patents from the front pages of patent documents. The model can be used as a supplementary evaluation tool in mergers and acquisitions, strategic technology planning, valuation of high-tech firms and R&D performance evaluation. Keywords: patent citation; biotechnology; patent documents; R&D performance. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Lin, B-W., Chen, C-J. and Wu, H-L. (2007) ‘Predicting citations to biotechnology patents based on the information from the patent documents’, Int. J. Technology Management, Vol. 40, Nos. 1/2/3, pp.87–100. Biographical notes: Bou-Wen Lin is an Associate Professor of Institute of Technology Management at National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan. He received a Doctorate in Management of Technology in 1998 from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York. He is a Lecturer and writer in the fields of international technology transfer, new product development, real