Futures Studies: An Evolving Radical Epistemology 1 Jennifer M. Gidley, PhD Adjunct Professor, Institute for Sustainable Futures University of Technology (Sydney) (UTS) The Radicalizing of Futures Epistemology The way that the scholarship of futures studies has evolved is entwined with the history of ideas in the second half of the twentieth century. Many futurists over the years came to the realization that attempting to predict the future, based on scientific positivism, was not the most productive way to approach futures studies in our complex world. Jim Dator put it this way: Like many early futurists, I started out with a rather ‘scientific’ and ‘positivistic’ perspective, assuming that there was one, true future ‘out there’ that proper use of good data and scientifically-based models would allow me to predict. I was soon disabused of that notion for many reasons. 2 Johan Galtung was one of the first to write about different kinds of futures. He referred to them as the ‘probable future’, relating to trend extrapolation, often bringing up fears, despair, and pessimism; ‘possible futures’ relating to imagination and the creation of interpretive, alternative visions including science fiction; and ‘desirable futures’ that relate to and include critical and normative values. 3 Swedish futurist, Åke Bjerstedt identified a fourth approach that I call ‘prospective futures capacity’ relating to a readiness to act, in spite of feared images of the probable future. 4 Bjerstedt was most likely familiar with the French prospective approach of Gaston Berger, and Bertrand de Jouvenel. In the mid-1990s I began to develop an extended futures typology that built upon the earlier typologies of futures approaches developed by 1 Extracts of this chapter were first published in Chapters Two and Three of Jennifer M. Gidley, The Future: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford University Press, 2017), 44-81. 2 James Dator, ‘Alternative Futures at the Manoa School’, Journal of Futures Studies 14, no. 2 (2009), 1–18, 5-6. 3 Johan Galtung, Schooling, Education and the Future Vol. 61 (Malmo, Sweden: Department of Education and Psychology Research, Lund University, 1982), 83. 4 Åke Bjerstedt,. Future Consciousness and the School Vol. 62 (Malmo: School of Education, University of Lund, Sweden, 1982), 10.