Research article Decision support framework for evaluating the operational environment of forest bioenergy production and use: Case of four European countries  Spela Pezdev  sek Malovrh a, * , Mikko Kurttila b , Teppo Hujala c , Leena K € arkk € ainen b , Vasja Leban a , Berit H. Lindstad d ,D € orte Marie Peters e , Regina Rhodius e , Birger Solberg d , Kristina Wirth f , Lidija Zadnik Stirn a , Janez Kr  c a a University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources, Ve cna pot 83, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia b Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Bio-based Business and Industry, PO Box 68, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland c Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Bio-based Business and Industry, Koetilantie 5, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland d Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, PO Box 5003, NO-1432, Norway e University of Freiburg, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Tennenbacher Str. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany f Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg, Wonnhaldestrasse 4, 79100 Freiburg, Germany article info Article history: Received 21 May 2015 Received in revised form 26 April 2016 Accepted 9 May 2016 Keywords: Renewable energy Biomass production Increased use Stakeholder perception National bioenergy strategies abstract Complex policy-making situations around bioenergy production and use require examination of the operational environment of the society and a participatory approach. This paper presents and demon- strates a three-phase decision-making framework for analysing the operational environment of strate- gies related to increased forest bioenergy targets. The framework is based on SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis and the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). Stakeholders of four case countries (Finland, Germany, Norway and Slovenia) defined the factors that affect the operational environments, classified in four pre-set categories (Forest Character- istics and Management, Policy Framework, Technology and Science, and Consumers and Society). The stakeholders participated in weighting of SWOT items for two future scenarios with SMART technique. The first scenario reflected the current 2020 targets (the Business-as-Usual scenario), and the second scenario contained a further increase in the targets (the Increase scenario). This framework can be applied to various problems of environmental management and also to other fields where public decision-making is combined with stakeholders’ engagement. The case results show that the greatest differences between the scenarios appear in Germany, indicating a notably negative outlook for the Increase scenario, while the smallest differences were found in Finland. Policy Framework was a highly rated category across the countries, mainly with respect to weaknesses and threats. Intensified forest bioenergy harvesting and utilization has potentially wide country-specific impacts which need to be anticipated and considered in national policies and public dialogue. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Renewable energy polices in the European Union (EU) have developed gradually since the 1990s, with the EU Renewable En- ergy Directive, hereafter EU-RED (2009/28/EC, 2009), as an important cornerstone which set a 20% renewable energy target at the EU level for the year 2020. The EU-RED also set mandatory targets for all member states. The national target share in EU27 varies between countries, the median figure being 18% (2009/28/ EC, 2009). Non-member states have also set national targets for 2020. For example, this target is 67.5% for Norway (Energy, 2013). Recently, the EU has prepared the climate and energy framework for 2030, including a 27% renewable energy target that is binding at the aggregate European level but voluntary for individual member states (Commission, 2014). This new policy of flexible targets gives more freedom and responsibility to individual countries to select and apply renewable energy targets and policies that fit their * Corresponding author. E-mail address: spela.pezdevsek.malovrh@bf.uni-lj.si (Pezdev sek Malovrh). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Environmental Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.05.021 0301-4797/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Journal of Environmental Management 180 (2016) 68e81