© Filodiritto Editore Journal of Economic and Social Development (JESD)
Vol. 5, No. 1, March 2018
69
Seasonality of Employment in Poland and a Selected Countries of the
European Union
RADLIŃSKA Kamila
1
, KLONOWSKA-MATYNIA Maria
2
1
Koszalin University of Technology, Faculty of Economic Sciences (POLAND)
2
Koszalin University of Technology, Faculty of Economic Sciences (POLAND)
Emails: kamila.radlinska@tu.koszalin.pl, maria.klonowska-matynia@tu.koszalin.pl
Work code CJ02F5008
Abstract
Every economy is characterised by its variability over time. This variability may concern long, medium and
short period of time. Scientific research usually concerns long- and medium-term changes, while changes
occurring in economies in short periods of time are excluded or removed from analyses. This procedure seems
to be unjustified, as only consideration of all fluctuations, including short-term, allows for full characterisation
of researched phenomena. Similarly, phenomena on the labour market are subject to variability over time, while
their short-term research seems to be particularly important. It results from the fact that variables of the labour
market, i.e. employment, unemployment, remuneration, concern not only economic, but mainly social aspects.
This paper aims at the analysis of diversity of seasonality of a number of employees in Poland and in selected
countries of the European Union. One attempted to determine the value and trend of changes in the seasonality
of employment and their distribution throughout a year. Analyses concerned the comparison of seasonal
fluctuations of employment estimated for Poland with seasonal fluctuations of employment in selected EU
countries, i.e. a group of highly developed European countries (France, Germany and Great Britain) and a group
of countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Lithuania). The study
uses quarterly data on a number of employees in Poland and in selected EU countries for the period from the
first quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2016 from EUROSTAT resources. The CENSUS X12 procedure
based on seasonal ARIMA models was applied for the selection of a seasonal component. The obtained results
indicate that the seasonality of employment in Poland and in selected EU countries was low. In a group of
Western European countries, the seasonality of employment was characterised with lower average annual level
than Poland. An average annual seasonality of employment in countries of Central and Eastern Europe was
higher than the seasonality estimated for Poland. Distribution of fluctuations of seasonal employment
throughout a year in Poland and in selected EU countries was similar in both analysed groups of countries. Peak
to peak value of the seasonality of employment constituted a differentiating feature. Western European countries
and Poland were characterised by a lower amplitude of fluctuations of the seasonality of employment throughout
a year than countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
Keywords: employment, seasonality, labour market, EU countries
Introduction
Every economy is characterised by its variability. This variability may be analysed in various periods of
time, i.e. long, medium and short. In economic analyses the fluctuations of economic phenomena constitute a
frequent subject of research. However, usually they are analysed in the context of long-term and cyclical
changes, while short-term changes are omitted or eliminated from analyses. Exclusion of short-term fluctuations
from research seems to be unjustified, as they may constitute an important component of the analysed
phenomenon [1].