Water Resour Manage (2010) 24:689–706
DOI 10.1007/s11269-009-9465-7
Streamflow Trends and Climate Variability Impacts
in Poyang Lake Basin, China
Guangju Zhao · Georg Hörmann · Nicola Fohrer ·
Zengxin Zhang · Jianqing Zhai
Received: 7 September 2008 / Accepted: 26 May 2009 /
Published online: 5 June 2009
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009
Abstract Under the background of global warming, does the effect of the rising
global surface temperature accelerate the hydrological cycle? To address this issue,
we use the hydro-climatic data from five sub-basins in Poyang Lake basin in the
southeast China over the past 50 years, to investigate the annual and seasonal
trends of streamflow and the correlations between streamflow and climatic variables.
The Theil–Sen Approach and the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test are applied
to identify the trends in the annual and seasonal streamflow, precipitation and
evapotranspiration series. It was found that annual and seasonal streamflow of all
the stations had increasing trends except Lijiadu station in wet season. Only 37.5%
hydro-stations in annual streamflow increased significantly, while most stations
increased at 95% significance level in dry season. Trends in annual and seasonal
precipitation during the whole period were generally not as significant as those
in evapotranspiration. The correlations between streamflow and climate variables
(precipitation and evapotranspiration) were detected by the Pearson’s test. The
results showed that streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin are more sensitive to
changes in precipitation than potential evapotranspiration.
Keywords Streamflow trends · Precipitation · Evapotranspiration · Correlation ·
Poyang Lake basin
G. Zhao (B ) · G. Hörmann · N. Fohrer
Ecology Centre, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management,
Kiel University, Kiel, 24118, Germany
e-mail: guangjuzhao@yahoo.com
Z. Zhang
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Forestry Ecological Engineering,
Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China
J. Zhai
Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, China