Chapter XVI
Modelling and Trading the
Soybean-Oil Crush Spread with
Recurrent and Higher Order
Networks:
A Comparative Analysis
Christian L. Dunis
CIBEF, and Liverpool John Moores University, UK
Jason Laws
CIBEF, and Liverpool John Moores University, UK
Ben Evans
CIBEF, and Dresdner-Kleinwort-Wasserstein in Frankfurt, Germany
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AbstrAct
This chapter investigates the soybean-oil “crush” spread, that is the proft margin gained by process-
ing soybeans into soyoil. Soybeans form a large proportion (over 1/5
th
) of the agricultural output of US
farmers and the proft margins gained will therefore have a wide impact on the US economy in general.
The chapter uses a number of techniques to forecast and trade the soybean crush spread. A traditional
regression analysis is used as a benchmark against more sophisticated models such as a MultiLayer
Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Networks and Higher Order Neural Networks. These are then used
to trade the spread, the implementation of a number of fltering techniques as used in the literature are
utilised to further refne the trading statistics of the models. The results show that the best model before
transactions costs both in- and out-of-sample is the Recurrent Network generating a superior risk ad-
justed return to all other models investigated. However in the case of most of the models investigated
the cost of trading the spread all but eliminates any proft potential.