International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting
ISSN 2577-767X
Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 25-33.
2022
DOI: 10.33094/ijaefa.v14i1.636
© 2022 by the authors; licensee Online Academic Press, USA
25
© 2022 by the authors; licensee Online Academic Press, USA
The Macroeconomic Determinants of Moroccan Corporate Bankruptcy
Youssef Zizi
1*
Mohamed Oudgou
2
Abdeslam El Moudden
3
1,3
ENCG Kenitra, Ibn Tofail University,
Kenitra, Morocco.
1
Email: youssef.zizi@uit.ac.ma
Tel: +212623649345
3
Email: elmoudden.abdesselam@uit.ac.ma
Tel: +212661765545
2
ENCG Beni Mellal, University Sultane
Moulay Slimane, Beni Mellal, Morocco.
2
Email: m.oudgou@usms.ma
Tel: +212670905675
Licensed:
This work is licensed under a Creative
Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Keywords:
Bankruptcy
Macroeconomic determinants
OLS regression.
JEL Classification
E00; G33.
Received: 30 May 2022
Revised: 20 July 2022
Accepted: 5 August 2022
Published: 25 August 2022
(* Corresponding Author)
Abstract
The absence of prior research in Morocco using the macroeconomic
explanatory approach to bankruptcy, combined with the new peak in
business failure in Morocco in 2021, motivates the need to explore the
influence of macroeconomic indicators on the Moroccan bankruptcy rate.
Therefore, the objective of this article is to examine the impact of these
indicators on the Moroccan bankruptcy rate using multiple regression
models over the period 2010-2021. The obtained results show that new
firm creation and the interest rate positively and significantly affect the
bankruptcy rate, while Euro and Dollar exchange rates have negative and
significant effects on the dependent variable. The results suggest guidelines
for policymakers and practitioners to refine the economic conditions in
order to achieve a low bankruptcy rate in Morocco.
Funding: This study received no specific financial support.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
1. Introduction
The literature on business failure dates back to the works of Fitzpatrick (1932) and Smith and Winakor
(1935) in the 1930s. Several empirical studies have been published on this topic in different study contexts (Shi
& Li, 2019). One of the main motivations for these studies is to allow practical decisions to be made based on the
obtained results (Ball & Foster, 1982).
Business failure is a complex concept with a multitude of definitions. Bankruptcy refers to the ultimate stage
of business failure and constitutes its legal definition. Refait-Alexandre (2004) defined bankruptcy as the opening
of legal proceedings following a situation of default. In Morocco, business failures reached a peak of 10,556 in
2021, having increased by 58.62% compared to 2020. The number of bankruptcies recorded in Morocco in 2021
was a new national record (Inforisk, 2022). Bankruptcy results in significant direct and indirect costs to
creditors, shareholders, and other stakeholders. In addition, bankruptcies can have adverse macroeconomic
effects (Hazak & Mannasoo, 2007). Nevertheless, the majority of studies on business failure in general, and
bankruptcy in particular, have been based on the analysis of microeconomic data (Ben Jabeur, Mefteh-Wali, &
Carmona, 2021). This is also the case in the Moroccan context, where a limited number of studies on business
failure have examined the impact of financial ratios (Azayite & Achchab, 2017; Bahrin, Yusuf, Muhammad, &
Ghani, 2022; Obeid 2022; Zizi, Oudgou, & Moudden, 2020) without considering the impact of macroeconomic
indicators. Therefore, there is a need to explore the effect of these indicators on bankruptcy in Morocco. Indeed,
several studies have shown that the introduction of macroeconomic variables in econometric models leads to a
better understanding and increases the models’ predictive power of bankruptcy (Habib, Costa, Huang, Bhuiyan,
& Sun, 2020). The objective of the paper is to examine the influence of macroeconomic indicators on the
Moroccan bankruptcy rate. Hence, this article aims to answer the following two questions: What are the